538
FXUS64 KMOB 031911
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
211 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have begun to initiate across
portions of the southeast this afternoon, as a weak shortwave
moves through the region. Despite a lack of strong forcing, this
activity has been aided in diurnal temperatures, and are expected
to remain fairly unorganized. Given an abundance of moisture
across the area (PWs around 1.5 inch), locally heavy rainfall
will be possible, along with brief wind gusts. This activity
should begin to diminish towards the late afternoon and early
evening hours as the shortwave moves to the east and we lose our
daytime heating.

The upper flow pattern will remain fairly unchanged through the
overnight hours and into Saturday, as a series of shortwaves move
through the region. Without any large scale ascent, dry conditions
will prevail overnight, with mid and high clouds persisting across
the area. Overnight lows will fall into the 60s just before
daybreak on Saturday. Patchy fog is possible once again tonight,
and may be dense in some locations. However, given the cloud
cover, the coverage is not expected to be widespread enough to
warrant an advisory at this point. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected once again on Saturday, though the
coverage will be scattered at best. The better chance for
thunderstorms will be over the northern half of the area, where
the influence of the shortwaves may be a tad higher. Otherwise,
expect highs to warm into the upper 80s across much of the area.
/73


SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Weak ridging will begin to build into the area Saturday night,
with another shortwave moving through during the day Sunday. This
will bring another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon, with lesser coverage over our southern zones. Locally
heavy rainfall and brief winds gusts will be possible with any
storm that develops and this activity will likely diminish Sunday
evening with the loss of daytime heating. Highs will warm into
the mid to upper 80s by Sunday afternoon, falling into the lower
to mid 60s Sunday night.

By Monday, a strong ridge begins to build into the region,
amplifying on Tuesday and Wednesday as a trough moves into the
Planes. Dry conditions will then prevail through the remainder of
the forecast period, with the main focus on the potential heat
next week. Under the influence of the ridge, and after several
days of persistent southerly flow, high temperatures will climb
into the upper 80s to lower 90s (~10 degrees above seasonal
norms). Heat indices will be in the upper 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday, which may lead to heat stress concerns. Overall,
though, RH will likely remain low enough to prevent widespread
heat concerns. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s to
lower 70s each night. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then
increase slightly during the early part of next week as surface
high pressure continues to ridge into the marine area from the
east. Bay waters will have a light to moderate chop through the
period. Seas offshore generally remain 2 feet or less over the
next few days, but increase to around 2 to 3 feet late in the
weekend and into the early part of next week due to the slight
increase in winds. Winds will be a little higher and occasionally
gusty each afternoon near the coast in association with the daily
sea breeze circulation. A few showers or storms are possible over
the bays and inland waterways this weekend. /73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  86  67  86  69  85  70  86 /  10  20   0  10   0  10   0   0
Pensacola   70  83  69  84  71  83  72  84 /  10  10   0  10   0  10   0   0
Destin      70  82  70  82  72  83  72  82 /  10  10   0  10   0  10   0   0
Evergreen   66  89  65  89  65  88  66  89 /  10  30  10  20  10  10   0  10
Waynesboro  66  88  65  88  65  89  68  89 /  20  30  10  30  10  20   0  10
Camden      66  87  66  88  65  88  67  89 /  20  30  20  30  20  20   0  10
Crestview   64  89  64  89  65  88  66  88 /  10  20  10  20   0  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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