515
FXUS62 KTAE 150843 CCA
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
443 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Dry weather is generally expected today, with a cold front slowly
moving across the region. This could spur a few showers and
thunderstorms along it, though confidence was too low to add PoP
anywhere outside of the eastern FL Big Bend. Outside of that, look
for mainly clear skies today with highs in the mid to upper 80s
for SE AL, SW GA, and the W FL Panhandle. The FL Big Bend should
be a touch warmer with highs in the upper 80s, perhaps approaching
90 in some areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The cold front would have completed its passage and upper level
ridging will begin to build in for Thursday. Temperatures will
still be warm with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, yet we
should be able to enjoy sunny skies. However, the ridge will
quickly pass to the east, ahead of an upper level trough with an
associated cold front. Ahead of this upcoming front, we can expect
showers and thunderstorms to develop during the day on Friday.
Moisture return with surface southerly flow will increase PoPs to
range between 50%- 70% for the Tri-state region, and will
gradually increase as the system moves east into the start of the
long term. Temperatures on Friday will be similar to Thursday with
highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Overnight lows during the
short term will be in the low 70s.

The chances for rain and thunderstorms on Friday (Day 3 outlook)
has prompted the WPC to highlight areas along the Chattahoochee
River and west in a Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall.
Areas to the east, excluding the Big Bend, are in a Marginal (1 of
4) risk for excessive rainfall. The outlook is for the convection
that is expected in the afternoon hours and will continue through
the night. The SPC has highlighted areas west of the Apalachicola
River in a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe weather. This will
be an evolving system throughout the day. Check back for more
details regarding the severe wx and heavy rain potentials.

The showers and thunderstorms continue into Saturday. A Marginal
(1 of 4) risk covers the entire CWA for Saturday. PoPs are high
with most of the area at or above 80% chances for
rain/thunderstorms. There is a continuation for severe storms into
Saturday, although confidence is medium at this time. Saturday`s
severe potential will depend on the system`s behavior from Friday.
Outside of storms, we may have gusty winds on Saturday. When it`s
all said and done, the forecast is between 1-3" of rain with
isolated higher amounts. Most of the heavy rainfall is forecast to
be north of I-10.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The front will be making its passage Sunday, clearing out the
remaining showers. This will make way for upper level ridging to
build and finally clear out the clouds and rain for the remainder
of the long term period.

Temperatures will remain warm in the low 90s for the afternoon
highs, and overnight lows will be in the upper 60s. Rain chances
are low for the long term. We could expect afternoon seabreeze
convection yet PoPs are generally less than 15%.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

There were some minor changes to the TAFs with this update as
stratus has started forming along and west of the Flint and
Apalachicola Rivers. Opted to hint or bring in MVFR cigs to most
TAF sites, with the possibility of IFR cigs being possible. The
other area that was updated was the removal of VCTS from KTLH and
KVLD as confidence was quite low in that happening this morning.
Especially since some of the guidance has trended that activity
farther south. An area to keep an eye on is the convection just to
our north along the I-65 and I-85 corridor over AL. If this holds
we may need to add VCTS or TS to KDHN and perhaps KABY over the
next few hours. Later this morning after sunrise, any cig
restrictions that have formed should improve to VFR and then hold
through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Elevated seas continue through the rest of today. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible this morning, particularly for the
eastern offshore waters, but rain chances will decrease through
the day as a cold front makes its way through our waters today.
Calmer conditions can be expected for Thursday with generally
westerly winds and seas of 2-4 feet. Showers and thunderstorms
return by Friday into the weekend with rising seas and, at least,
cautionary- level winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Drier weather will mainly prevail today, though some showers and
thunderstorms will be possible in the SE FL Big Bend. Dry weather
is expected to prevail into Thursday as well, with the main fire
weather concerns these first two days being high dispersions. Come
Friday, another change in the weather pattern is forecast.
Showers and thunderstorms return, though ahead of it we may see
high dispersions in FL. Wet weather continues into Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A Flood Warning was issued for Withlacoochee River - Valdosta
Skipper Bridge, which is currently in minor flood stage. The
latest forecast shows cresting today, then falling into action
stage by Friday. Ochlockonee River - Thomasville was excluded from
an issuance as the forecast to barely above minor flood may be a
bit overdone.

The next round of showers and thunderstorms has the WPC
highlighting the region in a Slight (2 of 4) Risk for excessive
rainfall for Friday in our northwestern counties, and a Marginal
risk for the rest of the CWA, excluding the southeast Big Bend. On
Saturday, the entire region is highlighted in a Marginal Risk. An
upgrade for Saturday to a Slight risk could be possible. Through
the weekend, a forecast of 2-3" is possible with isolated higher
amounts. Potential flash flooding will be possible, and we will
monitor for ongoing and future riverine flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  66  90  68 /  10   0   0   0
Panama City   84  69  86  72 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        86  63  89  68 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        86  63  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      87  66  89  67 /  10   0   0   0
Cross City    84  66  88  66 /  70   0   0   0
Apalachicola  84  71  85  73 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery