274
FXUS62 KTAE 141824
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
224 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Another morning of shower and thunderstorms is forecast as an MCS
approaches from the west. This will bring widespread rain and
thunderstorms to the region this morning before tapering off late
this morning and into the afternoon. The SPC has painted a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather from Gulf Co, FL to Lowndes
Co, GA while the rest of the service area is in a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5). Observations this morning have shown that dew
points are generally around 70 in FL though a few upper 60s are
closer to the FL/GA border and mid to upper 60s are found in the
just north of there. In terms of meso-analysis, SPC shows a bit of
a roller coaster of SBCAPE riding along the coast, with SBCAPE
increasing inland north of Apalachee Bay. Shear looks good too. It
will be interesting to see the 6Z sounding and compare the data
to see how the atmosphere could interact with the environment.
Thinking generally remains the same, with damaging wind gust and
perhaps a few tornadoes being possible. In addition to the severe
threat, we`ll need to keep an eye on heavy rain with PWATs
estimated to be around 1.5 to 1.8 inches.

After the main MCS rolls through, there may be some residual
showers and storms for much of the inland and western areas.
Guidance gets a bit messy in the evening to overnight hours either
keeping us dry or bringing an additional round of showers and
storms from about Lowndes Co, GA to about Gulf Co, FL. Opted to
keep some higher pops in this area from the NBM to account for
this.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

For the start of this term, we will begin transitioning (briefly)
into a post-frontal environment. The Southeast Big Bend will
likely have lingering showers and a few thunderstorms during the
morning hours before clearing out during the afternoon. PoPs for
Wednesday range around 30%-60% during the late morning into
afternoon hours for the Southeast Big Bend. The cold front will
make its way through the region from a northwest to southeast
trajectory, during the evening hours on Wednesday into the night.
During the day on Thursday, upper level ridging will build to the
west behind the frontal passage. This ridge will keep us dry and
quiet for Thursday, with slightly warmer temperatures.
Temperatures for the short term will have highs in the upper 80s
to near 90 on Wednesday and upper 80s/low 90s on Thursday. The
overnight lows will be in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

An upper-level trough approaches on Friday that will bring our
next chance for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. The
environmental conditions would suggest that some storms may be
strong to severe with gusty winds being the main concern, a
tornado or two, and hail; along with heavy rainfall will also be
of concern. The WPC has highlighted Friday (Day 4 ERO) in a Slight
risk (2 of 4) for our central time zone counties, and a Marginal
risk (1 of 4) for areas to the east, excluding the southeast Big
Bend. The heavy rain threat extends into Saturday where the entire
CWA is highlighted in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall.
Light showers and thunderstorms, lingering behind from Friday-
Saturday will be possible on Sunday ahead of the next front
clearing things out by Monday. It appears that deep-layer ridging
will return for the start of the work week, keeping us high and
dry heading into the extended forecast.

PoPs for Friday range between 40 and 70 percent, with the higher
values over our SE Alabama counties. Heading into Saturday, the
rain travels east, keeping the highest chances along the I-10/I-75
corridor with PoPs around 70%. Sunday`s chances will be highest
for the southeast Big Bend, but PoPs are about 40%-50%.

Temperatures for the long term will mainly have highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s and morning lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Breaks in the clouds have allowed for a return to VFR conditions.
A low level cumulus cloud deck to the west and an upper level overcast
cloud deck to the south appear to be spreading across/towards the
region. Some VCSH could be possible this afternoon across ECP and
DHN this afternoon and evening. A thunderstorm or two can`t be
ruled out in the vicinity. MVFR to possibly IFR conditions could
be possible overnight, although confidence in IFR conditions isn`t
high. A cold front finally moves through the region throughout
tomorrow with mostly clear to SKC conditions expected by tomorrow
afternoon. Before the front clears tomorrow morning, a few
showers and/or thunderstorms could be in the vicinity of TLH/VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are moving into our marine zones this
morning with the potential for strong gusty winds, waterspouts,
and frequent lightning. Multiple rounds of storms are expected
through the day today. Outside of storms, gusty winds are still
likely as a cold front eventually approaches by Wednesday night.
Advisory level conditions are possible, hence a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect this morning through tonight.

Favorable boating conditions are expected to return briefly for
Thursday before our next system on Friday through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Wet weather continues this morning, with rain and tstorms moving
in from the west. This cluster of storms is expected to organize
some more, potentially causing severe weather. The best chances
for severe weather are highlighted in the Slight Risk, which
starts at about Gulf Co, FL and cuts up towards Lowndes Co, GA.
Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible,
in addition to heavy rain. Tomorrow, conditions should start to
dry out and then hold through Thursday. High dispersions are
forecast during this time, which will be the only fire weather
concern. Wet weather looks to return Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

The Flood Watch is still in effect through this evening for
mainly the FL counties, except Dixie county. Seminole and Decatur
counties in Georgia are also included. The Florida Big Bend is
highlighted in a Slight Risk (2 of 4) for excessive rainfall today
(Tuesday) with the rest of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (1 of 4).
For the rest of these storms, 2-3 inches are possible with
isolated higher amounts.

Heavy rain chances return heading into the weekend on Friday with
another Slight Risk for our western counties, and a marginal risk
for our eastern counties. The rain chances continue into Saturday
with a Marginal risk for the entire CWA. For the weekend storms,
QPF amounts are about 1-2 inches, however isolated higher amounts
will be possible.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  88  67  91 /  40  10   0   0
Panama City   72  84  70  86 /  30   0   0  10
Dothan        68  86  63  88 /  20   0   0   0
Albany        68  85  63  88 /  30   0   0   0
Valdosta      69  87  66  89 /  60  20   0   0
Cross City    69  85  67  88 /  80  50   0  10
Apalachicola  73  84  72  85 /  60  20   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery