756
FXUS64 KAMA 101834
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
134 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A weather system centered over the desert SW has started to
influence the southern plains. This has seen some low but more so
mid level moisture move into the southern plains from the north.
This moisture has slowly moved into the western panhandles which
will allow for a low chance of light rain showers to even isolated
thunderstorm to form this afternoon to evening. Accumulations of
any rainfall during this time will be very low as the moisture is
still not high. As the weather systems influence grows through
today and tonight it will cause the winds to shift to a SE flow.
The winds will strengthen some becoming gusty during the afternoon
and evening hours. These winds will then drive in additional low
level moisture across the panhandles. This will cause the chance
for rain showers and thunderstorms to increase and cover the
entire panhandles. As there will be more moisture in play moderate
to even brief heavy rainfall may occur with these showers and
thunderstorms increasing rainfall yields. Sunday will see the
weather system finally move out of the desert SW and across the
southern plains. In doing so it will draw additional moisture
across the panhandles while increasing the instability and
environmental dynamics. This will lead to even higher chance for
rain showers and thunderstorms across the panhandles. It will also
open up at least a low chance for strong to even severe
thunderstorms. The central to eastern portions of the panhandles
are currently the more favored area for this low chance of strong
to severe thunderstorms to take place. The main threat from these
powerful storms is going to be large hail and damaging winds. All
this chat of rain and thunderstorms doesn`t guarantee that any
spot will receive any rain at all, it could be that one spot get
multiple showers and thunderstorms while other will stay dry the
whole time. So while the whole panhandles should average 0.5 to 1
in of rain some area will see higher some will see lower or
nothing. This weekend will be on the cooler side as the ample
moisture will have a high chance of causing fairly extensive
clouds. This will help to suppress daytime heating bringing down
the temperatures. This will further be compounded by the system
itself moving cooler air across the southern plains. So below
average highs in the 60s to 70s have a high chance of occurring
for both Saturday and Sunday.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Showers/storms will hopefully be ongoing intermittently through
the weekend, creating a less than obvious thunderstorm outlook
on Sunday. More vigorous upper level support should arrive to the
region by Sunday afternoon-evening as a positively tilted trough
ejects towards the Plains. Deep-layer moisture will remain in
place by the time this system arrives, with high PWATs around or
greater than 1.00" for much of the Panhandles. The question lies
in how much instability can exist for afternoon convection, likely
dependent on daytime heating and recovery from any overnight/
morning convection, along with if and where the cap can break to
utilize any available fuel. As a sfc trough develops through the
day, it may help to break the cap and initiate additional
convection. Deep-layer shear would likely be favorable for some
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms IF sufficient instability
remains in place east of the sfc trough. Based on ensemble
probabilities for CAPE >1000 J/kg (40-70%), the most favored areas
for this low-end severe potential would reside across the eastern
to central combined Panhandles. Regardless, any shower or storm
on Sunday would likely provide beneficial rainfall, especially
across eastern counties where model forecast soundings depict a
saturated environment with tall, skinny CAPE profiles. Generally
expect weekend rainfall totals in the 0.1-0.5" range, with
localized higher localized totals in the 0.75-1.00" range or
greater certainly plausible.

As the system departs Sunday night, a weak cold front will swoop
down and steal whatever moisture remains, although some lingering
showers may persist into Monday morning. Monday will actually be
warmer behind the front however, thanks to eroding cloud cover and
increased sunshine. Sfc winds shift to south- southwesterly
Tuesday as ridging aloft makes a temporary return. Expect highs in
the mid to upper 70s Monday, warming into the 80s Tuesday. Rain
and storms could return by midweek when ensembles agree another
shortwave approaches the region. Details are still up in the air
and although currently unimpressive, Wednesday could be a day to
monitor for strong to severe storms, with rain chances persisting
into Thursday.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Rain showers and even isolated thunderstorms push into the western
panhandles this afternoon and evening. While this is not expected
to impact any terminal today there is a very small chance that
KDHT can be impacted. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail
through the rest of today and early morning hours. By mid morning
of Saturday rain showers and thunderstorms will spread across the
panhandles and become more numerous. All terminals will have a
chance for rain and thunderstorms through this time. Conditions
have a high chance to become MVFR as low clouds settle across the
panhandles starting during the mid morning impacting all
terminals. While the chances are very low strong storms with hail
and damaging winds cannot be fully ruled out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                51  69  52  72 /  10  60  70  80
Beaver OK                  50  79  52  73 /   0  40  60  90
Boise City OK              47  67  47  72 /  20  80  70  80
Borger TX                  53  76  54  77 /  10  60  70  90
Boys Ranch TX              51  70  52  77 /  20  70  80  70
Canyon TX                  50  67  51  74 /  10  60  70  70
Clarendon TX               53  71  53  69 /  10  60  60  90
Dalhart TX                 46  65  48  74 /  20  80  80  70
Guymon OK                  48  73  50  74 /  10  60  70  90
Hereford TX                51  67  52  76 /  20  70  80  60
Lipscomb TX                52  78  54  72 /   0  30  70  90
Pampa TX                   52  73  53  71 /  10  50  60  90
Shamrock TX                54  75  54  68 /   0  40  60  90
Wellington TX              55  75  54  68 /   0  40  60  90

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...98