Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 191005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
305 AM PDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Quiet weather will persist through Tuesday morning. A
Pacific storm system will bring rain and snow to the state
for the middle part of the week beginning late Tuesday. Gusty
winds are expected Thursday. A brief break in the active weather
pattern is expected Friday before another disturbance brings more
precipitaion to northern Nevada Saturday.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday.

Steadily rising 500 dm heights under a building ridge will bring
warmer temperatures to the state through midweek. Temperatures on
Wednesday could rise into the 60s in many locations. West Coast AR
event will stream moisture into the region Tuesday and especially
Wednesday with valley rain and mountain snow expected late
Tuesday into Thursday. Precipitation intensity will be light until
Thursday when stronger forcing arrives.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday. Only made minor
adjustments to the extended forecast. The more noticeable change
was to bump up pops for Thursday and Friday, since confidence is
above average for this storm system. Significant valley rain and
mtn snow is likely, especially Thu/Fri. As of now, many mountains
above 6500-7500 will see in excess of 12" from Wed-Sat. The tricky
part will be how much, if any, snow occurs in the valley. Current
thinking is rain will change to snow for valleys above 5500 feet
Friday morning. However, moisture will be exiting the region. Some
higher valleys may see a slushy inch or two of snow, but impacts
are expected to be minimal. This bears watching in case forecast
solutions come in colder and more snow is forecast.

Winds from the storm system could also be quite on Thu.
Currently, guidance suggests a borderline wind event, but the mtns
could see gusty winds over 50 mph. Poor mixing may limit wind
potential in the valleys, therefore confidence is low a this

Due to the active weather, below average temps are expected from
Thu into the weekend. The coldest days are forecast next weekend.


.AVIATION...VFR expected next 24 hours at all TAF locations. Only
item worth mentioning will be SCT/BKN mid deck moving across the
area later this morning and aftn.




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