182
FXUS64 KLUB 051854
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
154 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Low clouds are clearing this morning with temperatures slower to
warm across the area, but still expecting high temperatures in the
70s. Current satellite midlevel water vapor analysis shows an upper
low spinning over the Great Basin with westerly flow aloft. This
system will continue to swing eastward over the Northern Rockies
tonight with southwesterly flow aloft. As a result, the surface low
across eastern Wyoming will strengthen overnight with an increasing
low level jet over West Texas. Thus, breezy southerly surface winds
will develop overnight. Upslope flow will also give way to increased
low level moisture and the return of low clouds across the area.
However, these low clouds will clear much quicker tomorrow morning
as the negatively tilted trough pushes into the Plains. The Pacific
front will push eastward across the forecast area tomorrow, which
will bring dry and breezy west winds. As a result, the dryline will
also be pushed eastward across the Rolling Plains through the
afternoon. There is a low end threat for a storm or two to develop
across the far southeast Texas Panhandle and far eastern Rolling
Plains. However, the dryline is likely to be east of the forecast
area with little to no chances for any thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will be the main story of the long-
term period. Zonal flow aloft will return to the region as the
shortwave trough and associated low ejects north into the High
Plains Tuesday where it is expected to remain relatively stationary
through mid-week. This will allow surface troughing in the lee of
the Rockies to develop and influence breezy west to southwest winds
across the forecast area which will work to boost temperatures above
seasonal norms into the 80s and 90s Tuesday and Wednesday. These
breezy conditions in addition to warm temperatures and low minimum
RH values may lead to elevated to near critical fire weather
concerns, especially across areas on the Caprock and far
southwestern Texas Panhandle where there is a lack of fuel moisture.

By Thursday, the once stationary low/trough, over the High Plains
will kick off to the northeast and sling a cold front through the
region. FROPA is expected to track through the FA overnight
Wednesday into Thursday morning providing much needed relief from
the above normal temperatures with highs in the 70s expected through
the end of the week. Ensemble guidance continues to hint at a cutoff
low developing across western CONUS late next week. Depending on how
far east this system tracks, we could see our next best shot of
showers and thunderstorms across the FA. Given the vast amount of
uncertainty with timing and evolution of this system have opted to
stick with NBM mentionable PoPs for the time being.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

MVFR ceilings persist this morning across all three sites, but the
low stratus deck is expected to clear early this afternoon with a
return of VFR conditions. Low clouds will return again tonight at
all three sites with MVFR to IFR ceilings. Southerly surface winds
will pick up this afternoon to around 10 to 15 knots and remain
breezy overnight. Winds will then ramp up to around 15 to 20 knots
by the late morning hours tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible tomorrow
across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and portions of the South
Plains. The Pacific front will bring dry and breezy conditions along
the Caprock. Minimum relative humidity values will range from 7 to
13 percent across the Caprock, with west winds of 20 to 30 mph and
higher gusts possible. A Red Flag Warning has been issued from Noon
to 9 PM CDT tomorrow for the far southwest Texas Panhandle and
northern South Plains.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for TXZ021>023-
027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...11