Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 212322
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
722 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical moisture will continue over the area into mid week
with high pressure centered offshore. A weak backdoor front
will briefly drop into the area this evening and lift back
north overnight. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday
night followed by high pressure from the north Thursday. The high
will move offshore Friday with a Bermuda high pattern returning
for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 700 PM Monday...The latest sfc analysis is showing the
backdoor front south of Albemarle Sound this evening. While
most of the showers and thunderstorms associated with the
boundary has diminished, but showers and thunderstorms continue
along the sea breeze...extending from Richlands, Onslow Cty to
Belhaven, Beaufort Cty. Due to the lack of bulk shear, most of
the rain has been locally heavy downpours with the slow moving
cells. Most of these showers/thunderstorms (associated with the
sea breeze) is expected to diminish with the lack of daytime
heating.

Front expected to stall near Hwy 64 this evening and lift back
north overnight, and will have low chance POPs lingering over
northern sections after midnight. Some lower clouds and fog
developing behind front over northern Outer Banks and meso
models support this spreading over Albemarle Sound region this
evening, and then slowly lifting north late.

Not much of a cold air surge behind front, thus low
temps still in upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 400 PM Monday...Front will be back north of area by
morning with surface pattern returning to offshore high/inland
thermal troughing. With moist and unstable conditions
persisting, models indicate some potential for isolated to
scattered convective activity inland and north and will have
20-30 % POPs those areas with southern coastal sections dry.
Max temps mainly low-mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM Monday...Some minor pattern changes are possible
for Thursday and Friday, but an overall moist warm pattern
expected to persist through the extended period, with higher
threats of showers/tstms Wednesday and again toward the weekend.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...While weak subsidence will prevail
over most of the CWA, believe the combination of an area of
surface low pressure and some mid-level shortwave energy moving
along the NC/VA border will enhance shower/tstms chances over
our far northern CWA. Considering going a bit higher on PoPs,
but held PoPs over the northern tier in the 30-40 pct range,
with little precipitation expected over the southern CWA. Highs
temperatures Tuesday should reach the low/mid 80s.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Deeper moisture with
precipitable water values surging back to around 2 inches, after
a drop on Tuesday, coupled with a weak back door cold front
approaching from the north, will lead to high shower/tstm
chances Weds. PoPs will range from high chance coast to likely
inland, with some locally heavy downpours possible. Despite
cloud cover, highs should still reach the low/mid 80s inland and
mid/upper 70s beaches.

Thursday through Saturday...A bit of a pattern shift to begin
Wednesday night/Thursday morning as a cold front will drop
across the area between 06z and 12z Thursday morning. This will
usher in some slightly drier and cooler air. There will still be
a low chance of showers/tstms inland each day, but dewpoints
will be slightly lower and low temperatures will drop into the
low/mid 60s for Friday morning in many areas with upper 60s on
both Thursday and Saturday mornings.

Sunday...Deep moisture between low pressure along the central to
western Gulf coast and strong high pressure anchored offshore
will lead to increased deep moisture for the latter half of the
weekend. Will forecast higher PoPs, gusty southerly winds and
cooler temperatures Sunday due to cloud cover and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tuesday/...
As of 7 PM Monday...High confidence for VFR conditions for the
next 6 hours, then possible MVFR/IFR ceilings to develop after
9z. Most of the showers and thunderstorms have diminished early
this evening, except over KOAJ...but expect showers to end
within the next hour or so. Similar to last night MVFR to IFR
ceilings can develop after 9z and persist into about 12/13z
Tuesday morning as stratus forms in the very moist low level
airmass which is forecast to continue over the area. Stratus is
expected to erode away by 13/14z Tues with VFR conditions
returning back and SW winds 5-10 knots. Isolated
showers/thunderstorms are possible for Tuesday afternoon.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 150 PM Monday...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could
develop late Tuesday afternoon, especially across the northern
TAF sites in region of deeper moisture and better instability.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected. More widespread showers
and thunderstorms are likely Wednesday into Wed night with
periods of sub VFR ceilings and vsbys possible. A cold front
will bring in somewhat lower dewpoints and drier conditions
Thursday afternoon into Sat with mostly VFR conditions
prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tuesday/...
As of 700 PM Monday...The latest buoy obs are showing NE 5-12
knots north of Oregon Inlet and SW 5-12 knots south. Seas have
remained 2-4 ft. Overall marine forecast is great shape; no update
needed.

Prev Dis... Weak backdoor front and associated convective
activity will produce period of N-NE winds over northern waters
early this evening, with flow gradually veering back to
southerly overnight as boundary lifts back north. Winds will
remain SW 10-15 Kt over southern and central waters. SW winds
will prevail over all waters Tuesday with return of offshore
high/inland trough pattern, with tightening pressure gradient
increasing speeds to 15-20 KT in afternoon. Seas mainly 3-4 ft
through period.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 350 AM Monday...Not much change in the expected forecast
for Tuesday and Wednesday with SW winds of 10-15 knots with some
gusts to 20 knots at times, as seas continue at 2-4 feet. A back
door cold front will drop south between roughly 06z and 12z
Thursday morning with winds becoming NE 10-15 knots with seas
continuing at 2-4 feet. High pressure strengthens offshore again
Friday with winds again becoming SE/S at 10 knots. No advisories
are expected through the extended period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...JME/CTC
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/JBM/BM



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