Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 231041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
340 AM PDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Any remaining showers and thunderstorms will be over
Mohave and Lincoln County this morning. Elsewhere, look for more
sunshine and warmer temperatures. A colder storm will bring wind and
chances for showers to the Sierra beginning Saturday and spreading
across the southern Great Basin Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will
remain below late March normals through the first half of the
upcoming week.

.DISCUSSION...Through Thursday.

Ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms over southeast Nevada
and northwest Arizona will come to an end later this morning as
shortwave just to the west of Las Vegas quickly moves toward the Four
Corners. NAM shows some weak CAPE redeveloping across eastern
Lincoln and northern Mohave Counties this afternoon. However, HRRR
does not show anything redeveloping so kept the forecast dry.

Wind becomes our issue tonight and Saturday. Cold upper low off the
Northwest Coast sags south tonight and Saturday leading to stronger
winds aloft and tightening surface pressure gradient in the the lee
of the the Sierra. Cross section across the southern Sierra shows
support for strong mid/upper slope westerly winds tonight through
about 8 am Saturday morning. Belt of strong southwesterly surface
winds encompasses all of the high desert of San Bernardino County
Saturday, as well as parts of southern Nevada and northwest Arizona.
Have higher confidence that a Wind Advisory will be needed for
northwest San Bernardino County Saturday. It will be windy, and
outside of the Lake Mead Natl Rec Area have less confidence that
wind advisory criteria would be met across southern Nevada and
northwest Arizona. A Lake Wind Advisory could be needed for the Lake
Mead NRA.

The trough to our northwest will slide southeast across the southern
Great Basin and Mojave Desert Sunday and Monday with an upper low
closing off over Arizona Tuesday. Best chance of showers will be in
Inyo, Esmeralda, central Nye and Lincoln Counties Sunday/Monday, and
finally in Mohave County Monday and possibly Tuesday. We will need
to watch for gusty north winds on the backside of the upper low
Monday-Wednesday, especially down the Colorado River Valley. Mild
temperatures today and Saturday will turn cooler with the trough
Sunday and Monday.

Low over Arizona shifts east Wednesday and Thursday allowing for H5
heights rises leading to a rapid warm up under stronger late March

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Expect dry and clearing conditions after
12Z today with shower activity moving rapidly east. A challenging,
low confident wind forecast today with gusty southwest winds 20-30
knots through about 15Z then are forecasted to decrease as the wind
direction switches to the north mid-late morning. East to southeast
winds are then forecast in the early-mid afternoon before turning
southwest and becoming gusty by this evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty southwest winds across the deserts this morning
with decreasing winds elsewhere. Winds increase out of the west to
southwest across Inyo, San Bernardino and Nye counties this
afternoon spreading into Clark, Lincoln and Mohave counties this
evening. Lingering showers in eastern Lincoln and northern Mohave
counties this morning with dry and clearing conditions everywhere
this afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating



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