747
FNUS28 KWNS 122153
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

Mid-level flow is forecast to remain partially displaced across the
southern third of the CONUS with an active subtropical jet through
early next week. A mid-level ridge will slowly build over the
western CONUS forcing flow aloft to trend northwesterly through
midweek. Widespread cooler temperatures and precipitation are
expected over the central and eastern CONUS through the forecast
period. This should keep fire-weather concerns limited, with a few
exceptions.

...Southwest and southern High Plains...
With cooler and wetter conditions likely to persist with northwest
flow aloft through the first part of next week, fire-weather
concerns appear limited. More sheltered parts of the Southwest and
southern High Plains, over southern NM and far west TX, may see
occasional dry and breezy conditions. Some ensemble guidance
suggests elevated to near-critical dry and breezy conditions will be
possible D4-D6 Wed-Fri, though confidence in coverage and duration
are low. Forecast uncertainty in the medium range is quite high
owing to difference in the magnitude of the western US ridging.
Greater fire-weather potential may evolve towards the end of the
extended forecast period as stronger southwesterly flow aloft is
forecast to redevelop over the southern Great Basin and Desert
Southwest into next weekend and week 2.

...Central/southern FL...
Rapidly developing short-term drought is expected to worsen across
portions of the central and southern FL Peninsula through mid week,
possibly extending into next weekend. Displaced from the higher rain
chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may
increase mid to late week as a dry cold front approaches. However,
confidence on the extent and magnitude of potential critical
conditions remain too low for higher probabilities.

..Lyons.. 05/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$