Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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185 FXUS65 KABQ 090014 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 614 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024 A relatively cold night is forecast across northwest NM, where a late season freeze is expected. A backdoor cold front will move southwest across the area Thursday through Friday morning bringing strong east canyon winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys. At the same time, a disturbance will move slowing east across the region through Sunday, bringing chances for showers and storms favoring the northern mountains and eastern NM. Daytime temperatures will be below normal most areas from Friday through the weekend due to the backdoor front and slow moving disturbance bringing some rain cooling. A warming trend is forecast thereafter that will take temperatures back to near normal most areas by Tuesday of next week. Unsettled conditions will persist as some moisture hangs on across north central and eastern portions of NM, where lower chances for showers and storms will continue through mid week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024 A dry Pacific cold front has pushed through most of the CWA as of 2PM, ushering in an even drier airmass to northern NM where dewpoints could drop below 0F later in the afternoon. Weakening flow aloft will make today less windy than previous days, but deep mixing will still help generate a few gusty winds in the typical windy areas along and just east of the northern mtns where Wind Advisories are in effect. Some high based cumulus can be seen developing on satellite across the west and this will continue to expand north and east this afternoon and evening. Mostly clear skies and efficient radiational cooling will help valley inversions develop tonight, including along the San Juan River Valley so the Freeze Watch was upgraded to a Warning for the Northwest Plateau. A backdoor front will enter from the northeast this evening, accelerating south and westward after sunset. Winds turn more easterly after midnight, helping to advect moisture in from the TX Panhandle. While the boundary will push through the gaps of the central mtn chain a couple hours before sunrise, guidance has continued to back off wind speeds. Given the SE/NW orientation of the flow, winds will likely be stronger in Santa Fe where gusts to 35 mph are possible. Divergence aloft associated with an upper-low spinning over Utah will provide enough lift for the generation of showers in the northern mtns and adjacent highlands Thursday afternoon. Instability may be just great enough to generate a few storms during the mid to late afternoon, but LIs around -1.5C don`t suggest widespread storms. Precipitation will decrease in coverage overnight, becoming limited to the Sangre de Cristo mtns where easterly upslope flow could keep a few light showers around. A secondary push of the backdoor front begins Thursday evening, increasing gap winds along the Rio Grande Valley. The upper-low over Utah drops southward into the Mojave desert, but it looks like it will still be too far north for an "ideal" gap wind set-up. This is backed up by NBM probs which only show around a 30% chance of wind gusts exceeding 48 kts during the Thursday evening-Friday morning timeframe. That being said, cold pools from convective activity in eastern NM on Thursday evening could increase winds further. Deeper moisture on Friday will result in an expansion in the coverage of precipitation. In addition, LIs below -2C suggest slightly deeper convection, a few more lightning strikes, and greater wetting footprints associated with showers and storms that do develop. This convection will also be the driving force behind another round of gap winds in Albuquerque and Santa Fe Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024 The upper low will be moving east from southern UT toward the Four Corners on Sunday as winds in the frontal layer turn more southerly and bring higher dewpoint temperatures further north into central NM, setting the stage for some afternoon thunderstorms. However, 12z modeled instability is rather unimpressive and despite notable 0-6km bulk shear the atmosphere will likely be unsupportive of severe storms. The best chances for measurable rain on Saturday will be over the northern mountains east across the east central/northeast highlands. The upper low will continue progressing east across the region Sunday, brining another round of daytime heating triggered showers and storms that will favor north central and eastern NM. Daytime temperatures will be below normal areawide this weekend due to the backdoor front, lower pressure heights associated with the upper low and some rain-cooling. A warming trend is forecast early next week with weak ridging in the wake of the departing upper low. Daytime temperatures will be back to near or slightly above normal areawide by Tuesday. Sufficient moisture will linger for more limited rounds of daytime heating triggered convection Mon/Tue that will favor the northern mountains and northeast highlands. Another backdoor front may move into northeast NM Wednesday and provide added forcing for a more robust round of storms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024 Brisk west winds will continue until several hours after sunset when a backdoor cold front enters the state from the northeast late this evening, accelerating south and westward during the early morning hours Thursday. The front is forecast to move westward through the canyons of the central mountain chain around sunrise Thursday. East wind gusts at KABQ are forecast to reach approximately 35 kt between 09/13Z and 09/17Z, possibly resulting in an Airport Weather Warning (AWW) for KABQ Thursday morning. MVFR ceilings are forecast to fill in gradually behind the front Thursday afternoon over the northern Sangre de Cristo mountains (north of Mora County) and possibly as far northwest as the east slopes of the Tusas mountains near the CO line. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING IN EASTERN NM AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY... Today will be the final day of an extended stretch of critical fire weather conditions. While winds are not as strong as previous days, gusts to 50 mph are possible through the afternoon in the typical windy locations along and east of the central mtn chain. These winds combined with sub 0F dewpoints will create critical fire weather conditions in eastern NM and the Upper Rio Grande Valley. Elsewhere in central and eastern NM, elevated conditions will be present today, with winds being the limiting factor for greater critical coverage. A backdoor cold front ushers in moisture from the east overnight. Gusty east winds through the gaps of the central mtn chain are expected tomorrow morning through Saturday morning, with the gusts to 60 mph possible Friday morning. Showers and storms will favor northern and eastern NM late week into the weekend, with precipitation coverage greatest during the afternoon/evening hours each day. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies along and east of the central mtn chain will create poor to fair ventilation Friday and Saturday. Ventilation improves Sunday as drier air enters from the west and kicks the moist airmass to the east. Elevated fire weather conditions return to western NM early to mid-next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 30 68 42 71 / 0 5 5 20 Dulce........................... 24 64 33 62 / 0 30 40 50 Cuba............................ 32 65 38 63 / 0 10 20 30 Gallup.......................... 27 67 31 70 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 32 64 34 68 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 27 68 34 70 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 34 67 34 71 / 0 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 42 71 42 71 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 37 66 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 32 71 34 74 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 46 75 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 26 58 32 56 / 5 50 50 60 Los Alamos...................... 40 64 42 60 / 0 20 20 30 Pecos........................... 38 63 39 56 / 0 20 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 37 56 37 54 / 5 40 60 40 Red River....................... 27 50 30 47 / 10 50 70 60 Angel Fire...................... 24 51 29 47 / 5 40 60 40 Taos............................ 29 62 34 60 / 0 30 50 20 Mora............................ 33 57 34 51 / 0 20 50 30 Espanola........................ 34 72 41 68 / 0 20 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 41 66 42 61 / 0 10 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 36 69 43 64 / 0 10 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 47 74 47 70 / 0 10 5 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 42 76 47 72 / 0 5 0 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 41 77 47 75 / 0 5 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 43 75 47 72 / 0 5 0 10 Belen........................... 37 78 43 77 / 0 5 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 42 76 47 71 / 0 5 5 10 Bosque Farms.................... 37 78 44 76 / 0 5 0 10 Corrales........................ 42 76 46 73 / 0 5 5 10 Los Lunas....................... 38 77 45 76 / 0 5 0 10 Placitas........................ 44 72 45 67 / 0 10 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 43 75 46 72 / 0 5 5 10 Socorro......................... 45 81 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 41 66 42 61 / 0 10 10 20 Tijeras......................... 40 69 43 65 / 0 10 10 20 Edgewood........................ 37 69 40 64 / 0 10 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 32 71 39 65 / 0 10 5 10 Clines Corners.................. 35 66 38 59 / 0 10 10 10 Mountainair..................... 37 70 40 68 / 0 5 5 10 Gran Quivira.................... 39 71 40 70 / 0 5 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 48 76 47 75 / 0 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 45 69 42 65 / 0 0 0 5 Capulin......................... 35 56 36 54 / 10 20 40 30 Raton........................... 36 59 37 56 / 5 30 50 30 Springer........................ 39 62 40 58 / 5 20 50 20 Las Vegas....................... 37 62 38 55 / 0 10 40 20 Clayton......................... 43 65 44 63 / 10 10 20 5 Roy............................. 43 64 43 60 / 0 10 30 10 Conchas......................... 46 73 50 68 / 0 10 20 5 Santa Rosa...................... 42 72 47 66 / 0 10 20 5 Tucumcari....................... 44 75 47 69 / 0 10 10 5 Clovis.......................... 47 78 49 70 / 0 5 5 0 Portales........................ 45 79 49 73 / 0 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 45 78 49 71 / 0 10 10 5 Roswell......................... 53 86 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 47 79 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 47 78 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ201. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-121-123- 125-126. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for NMZ219. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...33