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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
944 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front drops south through the area this evening with
showers and thunderstorms possible for most of the area. This
front is forecast to lift back north as a warm front Tuesday
night. Another front crosses the area Thursday with a stronger
cold front then expected by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Showers diminish overnight with partial clearing overnight.
  Lows mainly in the 50s.

Latest analysis reveals weakening frontal boundary approaching
the area from the north this evening. Trends continue to reflect
diminishing convection over the next few hours and will
therefore allow WW109 to expire at 10pm for soutehrn VA
including Hampton Roads. Expect all storms to continue to weaken
over the next few hours, as outflow boundary weakens and slips
farther south through midnight. Expect storms dissipate by 12-2
AM tonight with just a lingering shower or two possible
thereafter over US-58 corridor and points south. Lows tonight
will range from the mid 50s N to around 60 S.

Mostly cloudy skies expected Tuesday with the front remaining
near the area. This could spark additional showers and isolated
tstms, especially N. Highs Tue in the upper 70s-low 80s for
most of VA and NC. It`ll remain around 70 on the Eastern Shore
where the flow will be off the cooler waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Additional scattered showers and storms possible Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

- Not quite as warm, but remaining above normal through midweek.

The front sags southward into central NC early Tuesday before
lifting back N and NE during the evening and overnight hours. Not
quite as warm behind the front with highs ranging from the 60s/low
70s on the Eastern Shore, low/mid 70s for areas along and NE of the
I-64 corridor, and upper 70s to low 80s SW. The SW third of the CWA
will be closest to the front and associated low level moisture and
instability tomorrow afternoon/evening and a few showers or storms
are possible in these areas. Coverage is expected to be pretty
sparse with minimal QPF. Low-end chances for a shower or two
continue into Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Mostly cloudy skies expected Wednesday with the front remaining near
the area. This could spark additional showers and isolated tstms,
especially N. Highs Wed in the upper 70s-low 80s for most of VA and
NC. It`ll remain around 70 on the Eastern Shore where the flow will
be off the cooler waters. A weak cold front approaches from the W
Wed night/early Thu which leads to a somewhat higher coverage of
showers. PoPs are 30-50% though QPF should remain on the light side
(0.25" or less). Overnight lows Wed in the 50s N/NE and 60s S.
Thursday continues to look like the warmest day of the mid week
period with highs in the 80s for most of the area (70s across the
NE), despite the weak cold front moving through. Will keep
chance/slight chance PoPs over most of the area due to the cold
frontal passage occuring during the day. Will also have a low-end
thunder potential across the region during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Remaining on the mild side late week into the first half of the
weekend with on and off unsettled periods. Another cold front moves
toward the area later Friday into Saturday with additional chances
for showers and possibly thunderstorms. The 12z suite of
deterministic guidance is in somewhat better agreement with the
timing of the FROPA. The GFS and ECMWF both show a Saturday FROPA,
though the GFS is still several hrs faster. Whether this occurs in
the morning or aftn will dictate the extent of the tstm threat.
There still isn`t much of a high QPF signal as the front traverses E
of the Appalachians so will keep PoPs in the 30-40%/chance range.
Temps Friday will be seasonable with 70s for most of the area and
perhaps 60s on the ern shore. NBM guidance continues to suggest
warmer temps on Saturday, though this is dependent on the frontal
passage and continue to see a large spread in the guidance and
ensembles. For now, expecting 70s and 80s (warmest S/SW). Sunday
will be much cooler behind the front with temps topping out in the
60s, though some guidance suggests 50s across the N. Lows Sunday
night range from the low 40s N to right around 50 degrees for areas
near the Albemarle Sound. Cool on Monday as well with highs in the
low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Monday...

A cold front is dropping south through the area currently. A
line of thunderstorms continues to move south/southeastward from
RIC south. These storms are producing wind gusts upwards of
35-40kt and small hail. The threat is now moving towards PHF and
ORF between 00-02Z. Showers and storms will then move towards
ECG, though confidence is lower on wind impacts there as the
storms may try to dissipate slightly. Brief VIS reductions will
be likely in these storms. Storm/rain chances end from north to
south late this evening with skies trying to eventually break
by morning. Behind the front, expecting winds to become
northeasterly at 5-8kt into Tuesday morning.

Outlook: Most terminals will remain dry on Tuesday, however, there
is a slight chance of storms mainly from RIC west and south
late tomorrow. Rain chances may return Wednesday as well before
drier conditions move in for later Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

High pressure remains off the Southeast coast this afternoon.
Conditions are calm locally right now with west/southwest winds of 8-
12kt with waves of 1-2ft and 2-3ft seas. A weakening cold front is
slowly dropping south into the state. Storms are expected to develop
ahead of the front and move south/southeastward later this afternoon
and into the evening hours, generally between 5-10pm. At least a few
SMWs will likely be needed for 34+ kt wind gusts and potentially
isolated hail.

Storm chances will end from north to south later this evening. Winds
will become northeasterly behind the front during the early morning
hours, then turn more easterly during the day. Speeds will generally
remain below SCA thresholds, though there may be a 2-3 hour period
where the Bay sees very low-end SCA winds roughly between 3-6am.
Opted not to issue a SCA now since it`s so brief and right on the
threshold line. Expecting sub-SCA conditions for most of the week
with off and on rain chances through mid-week. Waves will remain
around 1-2ft with seas of 2-3ft. Seas will build to 4-5ft on Friday,
but should subside to start the weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...MAM/RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR/SW
LONG TERM...RHR/SW
AVIATION...JKP
MARINE...JKP