845
FXUS64 KAMA 081901
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
201 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Surface winds have been light and variable around the combined
Panhandles this morning with a stalled surface boundary (cold
front) over the area. This boundary is to retreat to the
northeast late this afternoon with westerly winds picking up to
potentially 20 mph gusting 30 mph for the southwest TX Panhandle
for a few hours this evening. The front in the north is progged to
push south late tonight with northerly winds overtaking the area.
The main push of CAA advection behind this front is expected
tomorrow, but also the upsloping winds will help keep
temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow with highs in the upper
60s across the northwestern combined Panhandles and 70s over the
rest of the combined Panhandles. Tomorrow afternoon surface winds
are progged to become more easterly with the southern half of the
Texas Panhandle seeing winds pick up to around 20 mph. Besides
some breezy winds and temperatures turning cooler tomorrow,
overall the weather is expected to be benign in the short term.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A large upper level low will be found over the Great Basin on
Friday. The Panhandles will be in a zonal to somewhat southwest flow
aloft ahead of this low.

As the low moves across the 4-corners region, the flow aloft will
become increasingly southwest through the weekend. Then the upper
level low is expected to track east across southeast Colorado and
southwest Kansas Sunday night into Monday. The models are in fairly
good agreement on the track of the upper low, but they disagree on
the the strength and speed of the low.

Showers and thunderstorms may start as early as Friday evening in
the west and showers and storms may linger as late as early Tuesday
morning in the east.  Another system in the northwest flow aloft may
bring some showers and storms to the area Tuesday and Tuesday night.
As the event gets closer, the time window for rain will likely
shrink as models come into better agreement with the speed of the
upper level low.  Latest ensemble forecasts suggest that the
Panhandles have a 50 to 60 percent probability of seeing at least
0.5" of rain from Friday through Monday night.  There could be a
severe storm or two during this forecast, but it does not look like
a favorable set up for days and days of severe weather in the
Panhandles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 18Z TAF period.
Winds will be either north to northeasterly or westerly as a
surface high to the northeast in KS competes with a surface low
in northeastern NM. KDHT and KAMA may see the winds shift out of
the west with some gust as high as 25 to 30 kts, mainly between
21Z and about 02Z Thursday. Then the cold front with the high
pressure in the north will surge south bringing northerly winds
around 10 to 15 kts for all terminals. Winds will eventually veer
to the east toward the end of this TAF period.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                50  73  47  72 /  10  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  46  76  44  76 /   0  10   0   0
Boise City OK              42  68  43  68 /  10  10  10  10
Borger TX                  50  77  49  77 /  10  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              48  75  47  74 /  10  10  10   0
Canyon TX                  48  73  47  72 /   0  10  10   0
Clarendon TX               51  74  50  74 /   0  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 43  70  43  70 /  10  10  10   0
Guymon OK                  43  72  44  73 /  10  10   0   0
Hereford TX                48  75  47  73 /   0  10  10   0
Lipscomb TX                48  76  48  77 /   0  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   49  74  47  74 /  10  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                50  76  50  76 /  10  10   0   0
Wellington TX              51  77  51  76 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...36