764
FXUS63 KEAX 011108
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
608 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers across central Missouri this morning should
gradually push east leading to dry conditions across much of the
region today.

- Potential for storms Sunday night - Tuesday.  Some storms may be
strong producing gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Northern branch of the upper level jet positioned near the
US/Canadian border continue to be the main branch of the upper level
jet through the forecast period.  Both the mid and upper level flow
remains relatively weak, allowing the low pressure system that has
plagued the region the last few days to continue to linger.  This
system, currently across central Missouri as of 08Z, is expected to
gradually lift north and east. Wrap around precipitation could lead
to light shower activity through the morning hours across central
Missouri. This precipitation and the associated cloud cover is
expected to gradually shift east.  As the northerly flow develops on
the backside of this system, expect drier air to gradually filter
into the region leading to incremental clearing throughout the day.

As the near surface ridge shifts east of the area, southerly flow is
expected to develop as zonal flow across the Rockies leads to lee
side troughing across the western High Plains.  A couple of
complexes of storms may try to develop tonight, one along the 925
warm front across southern South Dakota and a second across eastern
Colorado into western Kansas as an area of low pressure develops. If
the storms develop to the north into a complex, they will likely
propagate southward on the east side of the thermal ridge across the
western Plains potentially leading to morning storms building south
from eastern Nebraska/western Iowa into northeast Kansas/northern
Missouri.  As the thermal ridge shifts east, could see additional
elevated storms develop feeding off a thin north/south ribbon of 500-
1000 J/kg of CAPE.  With that said, shear remains weak in the
atmosphere, so expect storms to largely remain subsevere and fall
apart as they work east into a more stable atmosphere.

Storms are expected to redevelop across the western high plains
Sunday afternoon along a boundary/moisture gradient as weak short
waves move through in zonal flow.  These storms could potentially
build into another MCS, moving across the plains and possibly
building into the region Sunday night. As these storms build east,
they will have plenty of instability to feed off of (1000-1500 J/kg
of CAPE) and will be building into a 30-40 knot low level jet across
the region.  While mid level flow remains relative weak with upper
level ridge across the central US, the stronger low level winds may
be enough to result in some gusty winds with some of the stronger
storms. SPC has outlooked eastern Kansas into western Missouri in a
marginal risk mainly for the potential for severe wind gusts.

Additional storms are possible Monday into Tuesday within airmass of
building heat and humidity ahead of a cold front sliding south
through the region. Thereafter, large upper ridge develops across
the western US with a rex block pattern setting up leading to a
stagnant pattern Wednesday into next weekend.  Uncertainty in how
strong the upper ridge remains, and with the region positioned on
the front edge of the ridge, we may not remain completely dry, but
looks to be drier than the last several weeks have been.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

There is a mix of VFR to IFR conditions across eastern KS and
western MO this morning. Overall, conditions will improve to VFR
by this afternoon as lower cloud bases raise with the heating of
the day. Winds will generally be light through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB