037
AXPZ20 KNHC 111458
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jul 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W from central Panama north
into the Caribbean Sea, moving westward at around 25 kt. Nearby
convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W north of 05N to near the
border of Guatemala and Mexico, moving westward around 20 kt.
Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough
section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 109W from 07N to 18N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 120W from 06N to 16N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 130W from 05N to 14N, moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1012 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia near 10N75.5W to 09N90W to 11N110W to 09N133W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N133W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 16N between 77W and 96W,
from 12N to 17N between 103W and 108W, and from 06N to 12N
between 119W and 126W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough has been analyzed over the Baja California
Peninsula. Fresh to strong SE winds are in the northern Gulf of
California due to a tight pressure gradient between the troughing
and ridging to the east. Moderate to fresh SE winds are in the
central Gulf, and gentle to moderate in the southern Gulf. Seas
are 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of California, except to 6 ft in the
northern Gulf. Elsewhere, ridging extends across the waters
offshore of Baja California and west of 110W. Moderate to fresh
localized winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds
moderate or less across the remainder of the offshore waters of
Mexico. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft across the open waters, except
to 6 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and to 7 ft well offshore
Baja California Norte.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SE winds will occur
across the central and northern Gulf of California into early Sat
as troughing prevails over the region. Moderate to locally fresh
winds will then pulse in this area into early next week.
Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh NW are expected over
the Baja California waters into early Sat as high pressure
prevails to the northwest. Winds will diminish on Sat as the high
weakens. Moderate N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
possibly increasing to moderate to fresh early next week. Mainly
moderate seas will prevail through at least early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of
Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northern Colombia. Gentle
to locally moderate winds are noted elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough. To the south, moderate S to SW winds prevail. A
long period S to SW swell is moving through the regional waters,
promoting seas of 4 to 7 ft, with locally rough seas to 8 ft
occurring south of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat morning as low pressure
dominates the south-central Caribbean. Winds will diminish for
the rest of the weekend before winds restrengthen early next
week. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SW winds
will occur south of the monsoon trough into next week. A long
period S to SW swell will promote rough seas over the equatorial
waters today, with seas subsiding this weekend, then building
back to rough early next week. Seas will be mainly moderate
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from high pressure well north of the areas
southeastward across the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough. Mainly moderate winds prevail north of 10N and west of
120W, with seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed SE and NE swells. Moderate
to locally fresh SE winds are south of 06N and west of 110W. A
long period mixed SW and SE swell is moving through the
equatorial waters, promoting rough seas of 8 to 10 ft south of
04N and west of 110W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker
elsewhere with seas of 5 to 7 ft, dominated by southerly swell.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and
moderate seas are expected north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ
into early next week as ridging prevails over the eastern
Pacific. Elsewhere, rough seas over the equatorial waters will
slowly subside today, before another modest swell may produce
rough seas south of the equator Sun into early next week.
Moderate to fresh SE winds will occur south of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ through the middle of next week. Seas may build to rough
near 30N this weekend before subsiding by early next week.

$$
Lewitsky