Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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053 FXUS64 KFWD 090910 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 410 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1158 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024/ /Today through Friday Afternoon/ The frontal boundary is currently draped across North and Central Texas as of 11:40 PM, around a Comanche-Lancaster-Mount Pleasant Line. This can be seen by a northerly wind shift and sharp dewpoint/temperature gradient in surface observations. Showers and storms are still attempting to get going along this boundary in East Texas, but will eventually be snuffed out in the early overnight hours. Surface cyclogenesis will occur overnight near the front/dryline intersection, bringing the western edge of the front a bit northward and the front oriented more W-E in nature. The front will then stall near the US-380 corridor late tonight as the upper level shortwave ejects off to the northeast. the majority of North and Central Texas will still be in the warm sector of the system, with 70 degree dewpoints persisting through tomorrow morning. A deck of low-level stratus will once again impede through the region, and with the persistent increased moisture, will allow for the potential for patchy, sometimes dense, fog through the morning hours. The upper low will eventually detach from the main longwave trough, becoming a closed low over the Four Corners on Thursday. Shortwave disturbances will round the base of the low and move over North and Central Texas, bringing increased large-scale forcing for ascent. Storm chances will be on the increase over the afternoon hours, especially near the focusing areas of the cold front and dryline. Showers and storms will be possible across most of the area, with the best chances generally near and south of US-380 through the afternoon and early evening hours. The environment will be highly unstable with 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE, >7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, and ample deep layer shear. Storms in this environment will quickly become severe with very large hail and damaging winds the main threat. While the overall tornado threat is low, we cannot rule out an isolated tornado due to the abundant instability, especially within the warm sector where increased low-level SRH can be found. The stalled boundary will eventually get a push southward as the base of the departing main trough moves into the Tennessee Valley late Thursday night. Any lingering showers and storms will come to an end as cooler and drier air moves into North and Central Texas. Expect a cooler day on Friday with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, which are up to around 5 degrees below normal for this time of year. Prater && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Friday Night Onward/ North winds will drop to 5 to 10 MPH and veer to the northeast Friday night as a surface ridge moves southeast through the Red River Valley. The cooler and drier continental airmass (behind the cold front currently moving slowly through the region) will create low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s along the Red River to the lower 60s across Central Texas. The surface ridge axis will be practically on top of North and Central Texas on Saturday while weak ridging is simultaneously in place aloft. The result will be a nice Saturday with light winds and highs generally in the 75 to 80 degree range. The only minor damper will be thickening mid and high clouds and a slight chance of showers across the far west associated with an upper low situated over the southern Rockies. Clouds and rain chances will continue to increase Saturday night as the upstream low advances east. Showers and thunderstorms will initially be confined to the west and southwest counties, but will spread east/northeast across the rest of the region on Sunday as the upper low draws near. With the surface front becoming stationary along the Gulf Coast, convection will be elevated in nature, which should mitigate the overall severe weather threat. However, elevated instability may be sufficient at times to support quarter sized hail in a few storms Sunday and Sunday night. Locally heavy rain may also produce flooding in some areas. Rain chances will continue mainly along and east of I-35 on Monday as the upper low moves east through the Southern Plains. Precipitation will end from west to east Monday night as the low exits to the east and subsidence develops in its wake. Dry conditions are then expected Tuesday through Tuesday night, followed by additional chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday as the next upper trough approaches. The surface front will have lifted north by then, immersing all of the forecast area back within the warm sector. The dryline may also come into play, making Wednesday of next week look like our next (after today) significant opportunity severe weather. 30 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1158 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024/ /06Z TAFs/ Northerly winds will persist at D10 and southerly at ACT through the night. A surge of MVFR/IFR stratus is expected to blanket the TAF sites just after midnight, with best chances for IFR staying in Central Texas. Patchy fog/mist is also expected across Central Texas, with low chances of making it up into the Metroplex. By mid-afternoon, skies will lift to VFR. Scattered showers and storms will be possible near the TAF sites with best impacts at D10 between 22-24Z and 01-03Z for ACT. Storms should move south/east of the area later tonight as a cold front moves through the region. ACT will finally shift to northerly flow after 00Z. Northerly winds and VFR will persist through the end of the period. Prater && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 63 80 61 79 / 60 20 0 5 0 Waco 85 63 79 61 76 / 60 50 5 5 10 Paris 83 59 79 55 80 / 60 30 0 0 0 Denton 81 59 79 57 79 / 60 20 0 0 0 McKinney 82 61 79 57 79 / 60 20 0 0 0 Dallas 84 64 81 61 80 / 60 20 0 0 0 Terrell 84 63 79 58 78 / 60 30 0 0 0 Corsicana 86 64 81 61 79 / 50 50 0 5 5 Temple 86 64 79 61 77 / 50 50 5 5 10 Mineral Wells 82 60 79 58 77 / 60 20 0 5 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$