710
FXUS62 KGSP 300653
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
253 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure to our north will keep temperatures a bit below
normal through the end of the week. Once the high moves off to our
east Saturday night, we should see a slow warm up with a return of
the mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms typical
of late spring and early summer.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Thursday: The dominating omega blocking pattern begins
to minimize as the ridge axis squeezes eastward by Thursday night.
As the upper trough north of the CWA starts to move east as well and
the surface high pressure grows, winds will turn more northerly, but
remain light as the pressure gradient broadens. Guidance from the
GFS and EURO keep rain chances out of the forecast given the shunted
moisture to the region for the time being. Clear skies until this
afternoon when a few mid-level cumulus form east of the mountains.
By tonight, the upper ridge axis will be just west of the CWA. and
continue to stream in drier air, keeping dewpoints down. Highs today
will struggle to reach 80 east of the mountains with cooler
overnight lows around climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1247 AM EDT Thursday: The first part of the weekend still
looks relatively quiet as a mid/upper ridge builds in Friday and
Friday night, which finally brings a center of sfc high pressure
down over the Carolinas on Saturday morning. Friday should be
our last day of below normal temps and dry air in this string,
because once the ridge axis crosses overhead and moves toward the
coast on Saturday, the high gets pushed offshore and the moisture
will start to move back up from the Gulf of Mexico. Think that
Saturday afternoon should be rain-free at this time, with temps
returning to normal. However, Saturday night there will be a small
chance that showers could move in from the southwest or develop
over the southern mountains in the light southerly upslope flow
overnight. Some of the guidance is more aggressive with bringing
some precip in from the west, perhaps because of some sort of
loosely organized convective system developing closer to a cold
front to our west Saturday afternoon/evening and then making a
run at the mountains. Prefer to keep the precip probs low over
the mtns until we get a better sense for that potential in the HREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 253 AM EDT Thursday: The medium range continues to look
like a return to summer-like mainly diurnal showers and
thunderstorms beginning Sunday. The upper pattern should feature
a flattened nearly-zonal flow, but with several weak waves
running through it, the strongest of which may dampen as it
moves past to the north on Sunday. The suggestion in some of the
guidance is that a remnant weak cold front will get strung out
west-east across the region in the wake of this wave, and that
would act as a focus for more storms as moisture remains pooled
over the region for the rest of the period. Meanwhile, other
convectively-induced waves could move along and across the
region on any given day. Precip probs a bit above climo seem
appropriate, with a peak in the mid/late afternoon each day. The
details are too sketchy for anything else for now. Not yet
buying the GFS and its closed low over the region by mid-week.
So, we will keep to the plan of temps gradually rising above
climo and eventually reaching mid/upper 80s with increasing
humidity as we work through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail through the end of the
TAF period. A few cirrus clouds are streaming across the area and
should clear out by daybreak. CIGS will remain VFR with some BKN/FEW
at KCLT through at least 13z. By Thursday afternoon, some mid-level
cumulus are likely outside the mountains, but will remain VFR. Wind
gusts have diminished at KAVL and all sites have gone light to calm.
A strong area of high pressure will shift eastward and toggle wind
directions more N/NE through the period for terminals outside the
mountains. This shouldn`t cause any issues as wind speeds are still
expected to be light. FG/BR is not anticipated at any terminal given
the much drier air continuing to move into the region.

Outlook: VFR conditions and dry weather through Saturday. Shower and
thunderstorm chances may return by the end of the weekend and into
next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CP