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000
FXUS62 KGSP 252123
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
523 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front located just south of our area moves north as a
warm front on Friday and washes out across our area, but giving us a
cooler day because of clouds and a few showers. After that, expect a
warming trend through the weekend and into next week as high
pressure takes over. A weak cold front is expected to approach from
the northwest in the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 520 AM EDT Thursday: Cirrus is beginning to move in from the
west and will increase in coverage and thicken through the evening.
Stratocu is slowly dissipating before lower clouds return overnight.
Forecast on track.

Otherwise, downstream of large-scale western height falls, a
building upper ridge will progress across the eastern half of the
country through the period. Confluent flow downstream of this
feature will support persistence of a 1030+ mb surface high over New
England, with circulation around this feature allowing for
development of an inverted surface ridge east of the Appalachians
tonight through Friday. S/SE flow above this shallow stable layer
will increase moist isentropic lift and upslope flow from around
sunrise through much of the day Friday. However, rising motion is
expected to be quite weak and moisture shallow, so PoPs are limited
to the 20-30% range and primarily confined to the mountains and
foothills. The larger impact of the weak lift is expected to be low
cloud development, which along with NE surface flow will
significantly limit the heating potential on Friday. Max temps are
therefore forecast to be 5-10 degrees below normal...or about 10
degrees cooler than today`s readings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Thursday: Looks like we will be dealing with expanding
and thickening cloud cover within the developing/lingering damming
regime Friday night.  A smattering of showers or light rain should
accopmany, mainly being forced by the easterly flow impinging upon
the higher terrain.  As upper ridging strengthens top the SE CONUS
and llvl flow veers to southerly, overall improvement is on tap
featuring dissipating showers and thinning of cloud cover on
Saturday.  At this juncture, as long as the expected improvement
plays out as expected, temperature should rise to around the late
April climo.  Should be a quiet and warm Sunday as upper ridge axis
keeps the atmosphere suppressed.  Llvl flow around Bermuda Hipres
will push lower elevation maxes to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 PM Thursday: The warming trend will be ongoing to start
off the work week thanks to lingering eastern seaboard deep layered
ridging.  Ridging will begin breaking down on Tuesday with moisture
and weak frontal zone energy spreading into the western cwfa.  It
looks like a second elongated frontal zone will approach the
mountains on Tuesday, and within the broad moist and weakly unstable
atmosphere a round of scattered if not numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms are probable across the western cwfa.  Otherwise,
expect snother afternoon of piedmont lower and middle 80s for
maximums.  For the latter half of the period, the pattern remains
slowly progressive with daily chances of showers and storms, almost
summerlike with respect to the sensible wx as temperatures remaining
well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR/mostly SKC conditions will continue
through this evening. Winds...currently in a bit of a transitional
phase...mostly light/vrbl or even calm...are expected to settle at
light SE as most sites toward this evening, becoming NE at around 10
kts toward daybreak Friday. This arrival of NE winds is expected to
be accompanied by increasing moisture/lowing cigs, with MVFR
conditions expected at most sites by late morning. IFR cigs are
possible, but confidence is generally too low to include at this
time...except at KHKY where IFR appears more likely. Restricted cigs
should continue through the morning, with gradual improvement
expected during the afternoon. Can`t rule out a -SHRA or two late in
the period at the western terminals, especially in the foothills and
at KAVL, but the probability is too low to include a TAF mention
attm.

Outlook: Periods of low clouds are expected to linger into Saturday,
with drying expected Sunday/Monday. A frontal system could bring a
round of showers and storms to the area Tuesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JDL