Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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287 FXUS63 KIWX 111022 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 622 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief showers ending early today - Cool today, warmer and dry Sunday. - Periodic chances for showers and storms this upcoming work week; best chances for rain Monday afternoon through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 A cold front was moving east across the area. There was up virtually no instability or shear to work with, although upper level jet support and some low level convergence was able to sustain showers. Have removed thunder given the lack of support for storms and no thunder observed. The showers should end across northwest Ohio by 10 AM EDT followed by clearing. There has been large social media interest with the solar storm and subsequent Northern Lights visible across the area. The latest forecast from the Space Weather Prediction Center indices the solar activity is expected to persist into Sunday. It looks like skies will be favorable tonight to view any additional activity. A fairly large upper level trof like an impulse will drift east and finally reach the forecast area about Tuesday. Overall factors for severe storms are limited, although precipitable water values will rise above 1.2 inches and hover in the 90th percentile for this time of the year as the upper level system arrives. Hydro concerns should be somewhat limited given the advance state of vegetation and lack of a more favorable backbuilding pattern. Locally heavy rainfall is still likely along with rises on several rivers. The GFES ensembles favor some rivers returning above minor flood stage, but overall flood and hydro impacts appear limited. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 616 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 A few remaining rain showers will continue to move eastward this morning out of the area. Some cumulus around 5000 feet will again develop with surface heating by late morning to early afternoon but should see better clearing with ridging moving into the region. Both TAF sites will have VFR conditions through the remainder of the period. Breezy northwest winds today with a few gusts up to around 20-25 kts possible. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skipper AVIATION...Andersen