926
FXUS63 KLOT 100658
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
158 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and continued dry conditions today and Monday, with
  shower and storm chances returning on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

High pressure will drift across the western Great Lakes through
Monday as deep troughing over eastern Canada edges eastward.
This will set the stage for a seasonably cool, but dry and
mostly clear period for the area. Continued deep diurnal mixing
will promote sporadic gusts to 25(20) mph or higher and RH
values under 30(35) percent this afternoon (Monday afternoon),
resulting in a brief period of elevated brush fire conditions
each afternoon.

With high pressure nearing from the northwest and dry
conditions noted by PWATs under 0.4 inches, another unseasonably
chilly night with some patchy frost for outlying areas of far
northern Illinois is possible late. Some mid-level cloud cover
associated with a wave/elongated trough currently over southern
Manitoba will cross the area tonight and may be keep temps just
warm enough to limit coverage of frost. Conditions appear too
marginal to issue a Frost Advisory for counties including and
north of the I-88 corridor.

A modestly strong trough tracking southeastward over the
Boundary Waters early Tuesday will brush the area to the north
with WAA-induced showers during the morning, followed by a
potential axis of showers and some thunderstorms associated with
a cold front Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Will need to
monitor for a low-end isolated strong storm risk during this
time as a decent kinematic field compensates for marginal mid-
level lapse rates and a somewhat dry low-level profile.

High pressure and a return to seasonably cool and dry
conditions will return Wednesday and Thursday. The broader flow
across North America is then progged to transition into a more
active northern stream across the CONUS, with increasing
rain/storm chances and potentially a period of seasonably warm
conditions beginning as early as Friday and especially late next
weekend into the following week.

Kluber

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Key Messages:

- A renewed surge of east-northeast winds expected early this
  morning, possibly briefly gusting up to 18 KT at ORD and MDW
  just after the 06Z, before abating through the predawn hours.

- Winds to settle into a northwesterly direction (all sites
  expect GYY) mid to late this morning, with some gustiness (up
  around or just above 20 kt) developing this afternoon.

- Northeast winds return at all sites by early evening.

The only notable weather concern through the period, as noted
above, revolve around wind trends. Winds are currently nearly
calm across much of the area. However, there is currently
another surge of northeasterly winds currently dropping
southward into far northeastern IL. This is expected to result
in resurgence of northeasterly winds at the Chicago area
terminals in the 06-07 timeframe. A few gusts of 17 to 20 kt
may accompany the initial surge of winds, but speeds are
expected to abate through the overnight hours, with generally
light (5 kt or less) and variable winds anticipated by daybreak
this morning. Thereafter, winds will settle into a
northwesterly direction by mid to late this morning (expect at
GYY, where north-northeasterly winds will persist today), then
become gusty up around 21 kt this afternoon. Finally, as wind
speeds abate early this evening, expect directions to shift back
to the east-northeast as surface high pressure quickly builds
into the western Great Lakes. Easterly onshore winds are
anticipated to persist with this surface high through Monday.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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