059
ACUS11 KWNS 191802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191801
SCZ000-GAZ000-192000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0830
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Georgia and far southern South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 191801Z - 192000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds and severe hail will remain
possible through the late afternoon hours as thunderstorms spread
southward into southeast Georgia. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop in the
vicinity of a weak upper-level disturbance that is slowly meandering
southeastwards towards the GA coast. Although a consolidated cold
pool has become established at this point (based on radar velocity
data and surface observations), MRMS echo top data and GOES IR
imagery have shown several intense updraft pulses within the last
half hour, even behind the primary outflow boundary. This
thunderstorm cluster is expected to slowly push southward into
southeast GA through late afternoon. Weak deep-layer wind shear
(20-25 knots) downstream will continue to limit the longevity and
organization of the more robust updraft pulses; however, the
thermodynamic environment is favorable for strong to severe
downbursts given moderate SBCAPE (2500-3000 J/kg), steep low-level
lapse rates, and theta-e deficits between 25-30 K. One such
downburst has already been observed in southern SC and resulted in a
68 mph wind gust. While winds of this magnitude should be fairly
infrequent with these storms, damaging winds appear probable.
Similarly, sporadic severe hail has been observed and will continue
to be a threat given cool temperatures aloft and surface-based
lifted indices between -8 to -10 K. Due to the short-lived nature of
this activity, instances of severe wind/hail should be sufficiently
sporadic to preclude the need for watch issuance.

..Moore/Hart.. 05/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   30768161 31048218 31388262 31738276 32218265 32618239
            32748192 32718144 32648097 32558061 32468046 32178051
            31988084 31738108 31448118 31168126 30948131 30838133
            30768161