249
FXUS63 KPAH 141842
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
142 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms continue today; can`t rule out a severe
  storm this afternoon.

- Some lingering showers continue tonight into Wednesday, and
  then another system spreads additional showers and storms into
  the region Thursday through Friday.

- Uncertainty exists regarding precip chances this weekend, but
  it is trending drier.

- Temperatures will start off near to slightly below normal the
  next couple of days, then warm above normal this weekend as
  highs reach the mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Thunderstorms are growing a little stronger and better organized
over Livingston County and vicinity. A few breaks in the
overcast have allowed for better surface heating and about
800-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forming up across the area. Similar
instability is forming ahead of a broken line of showers across
SEMO. With modest deep layer shear but just a little directional
low level shear invof the surface low will have to monitor for
a stray severe storm or two this afternoon. Antecedent soil
conditions will also make at least a few areas primed for flash
flooding if they happen to get storms once again this afternoon.
Mainly a corridor from about Evansville to Cairo, IL that saw
repeated activity through the midday hours Tuesday.

Wednesday looks a little drier although some wraparound showers
and clouds appear possible in the eastern half of the CWA.
Friday a quick moving shortwave moves overhead. GFS/NAM have us
in a little more large scale ascent zone of the upper jet Friday
where the ECMWF is a little flatter with the wave. Rain and
thunderstorms look quite likely. The shear environment will be
more favorable than today, and instability may be slightly
larger. That will be the main ticket to any severe potential
Friday is if we end up with slightly more than currently
advertised MLCAPE a more organized severe threat may result.
Heavy rainfall will be a watch item as well with the
increasingly wet soil conditions and fairly deep column
moisture.

A front moves through behind this system and looks to mostly dry
us out for the weekend. By Saturday highs look to climb back
into the middle 80s. 12z deterministic and ensemble members are
still in very poor agreement on the details, but the broader
moisture return, trough positioning and climatology would
suggest it be monitored for severe weather and heavy rain
potential as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Low pressure centered over the area will continue to produce
variable, but prevailing IFR/Low MVFR conditions with showers
and scattered thunderstorms popping up through the rest of the
day. Activity should wane after sunset but we should be fairly
well setup for fog or IFR ceilings late overnight. I would
probably tend to bet more towards light winds and fog but some
sort of degraded flying conditions appear likely either way.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG