857
FXUS65 KPUB 061925
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
125 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms will be possible both today and Monday
  across the southeast plains.

- Warmer and drier weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Hot and breezy Thursday with cooler and and more unsettled weather
  for Friday into the early weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Quick update to the forecast grids for Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance this afternoon for El Paso and Kiowa counties, in
effect until 8 PM tonight. While the majority of the activity
will likely be north of the Palmer Divide, a few severe storms
are possible in and near the watch area, with the main expected
threats being gusty outflow winds of 60-70 mph and hail up to
around i inch in diameter. Moore

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Current water vapor and upper air analysis indicates modest
westerly flow aloft across the region with upper high pressure
located across the Desert Southwest into southwestern New
Mexico, as short wave energy translates across the faster zonal
flow across the Northern Tier at this time. Blended total water
vapor imagery is indicated drier air in place across the Great
Basin into western Colorado at this time, with increased
available moisture and PWATs running 120-150 percent of normal
across the Northern Rockies into eastern Colorado and the High
Plains at this time. Regional radars as of 1 am are indicating
scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across the
Palmer Divide into the southeast plains, and clouds developing
across the lower eastern slopes into the southern I-25 Corridor
at this time. Temperatures were mainly in the 60s across the
plains and in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain.

Latest model data supports slowly increasing northwest flow aloft
through Monday, as the upper high remains progged to build north to
south of the Four Corners region as Northern Tier short wave energy
digs down across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern High
Plains.

With that said, expected lee troughing and south to southeast low
level flow will keep low level moisture in place and dew pts in the
upper 40s to upper 50s and progged cape of 1000-2000 j/kg, highest
across the far southeast plains and into northeast Colorado this
afternoon. With the increasing northwest flow, bulk shears increase
to 30-40kts leading to potential for strong to severe storms,
producing gusty winds of 60 to 70 mph and hail to the size of
quarters. The greatest potential looks to be across eastern El Paso
County into the far southeast plains, where the latest SPC outlook
has this area in a slight risk, with the marginal risk back across
the eastern mtns and into the I-25 Corridor. Convection could
congeal into a convective cluster across the far southeast plains
through the evening, which may send another moist easterly surge
back across the plains tonight, with possible stratus across the
plains early Monday morning. Further West, drier air still remains
in place, with some cumulus buildups and a few isolated afternoon -
shra/-tsra possible over the higher terrain. As for temperatures,
near to slightly above seasonal readings are expected across
the region, with highs today in the upper 80s to mid 90s across
the plains, in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain and
into the mid 80s across the high mtn valleys, with lows in the
50s to low 60s across the plains and mainly 30s and 40s across
the higher terrain.

Monday brings another day for potentially strong to severe storms
across the southeast plains, as northwest flow aloft and south to
southeast low level flow keeps enough instability and shear in place
to support storm development, with the lastest SPC outlook
indicating a marginal risk generally east of the I-25 Corridor.
Latest model data support slightly more available moisture back
across the higher terrain to see scattered afternoon showers and
storms pushing off the higher terrain into the more unstable
environment across southeast Colorado. With more expected convection
and cloud cover, Monday`s temperatures are expected to be slightly
cooler than todays.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The upper high across the Four Corners region remains progged to
build into south central Colorado Tuesday and Wednesday,
bringing a warming and drying trend to all of south central and
southeast Colorado. While there looks to be enough residual
moisture for isolated to scattered higher based showers and
storms over and near the higher terrain on Tuesday, Wednesday
looks to be mainly dry across the area with the upper high
overhead. At to slightly above seasonal temperatures areawide on
Tuesday warm into the mid 90s to lower 100s across the plains
on Wednesday, with 70s and 80s expected across the higher
terrain and upper 80s to lower 90s across the high mountain
valleys.

For Thursday and beyond, latest models are in general agreement of
the upper high being shunted south and east by several embedded
waves translating through the faster zonal flow across the Northern
Tier. Ahead of the first passing wave on Thursday, will bring
breezy westerly winds and very warm temperatures leading to the
potential for critical fire weather conditions across portions
of the area. This passing system sends a cold front across the
area leading to cooler, closer to seasonal temperatures, and
more unsettled weather once again for Friday and into the early
weekend, as available moisture increases across the region once
again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Isolated convection firing over the higher terrain as of midday, and
today looks to be very similar to yesterday. VFR conditions
anticipated for most locations through much of the next 24 hrs,
including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. However,
strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible across
much of the southeast plains this afternoon and evening,
affecting KCOS and KPUB with intermittent MVFR to even IFR
conditions due to lowered vsby and CIGS. Storm activity it
expected to persist into the overnight hours. Main threats from
stronger storms today will be gusty outflow winds of 50-60 kts,
up to 1 inch diameter hail, brief periods of heavy rain and
cloud to ground lightning.

KCOS & KPUB: SE winds increasing with gusts to 22-25 kts starting by
20z, with PROB30 for -TSRA, lowering CIGs and variable gusts to 35
kt from 20z-02z. VFR conditions after 02z.

KALS: VFR conditions. Any convection that develops should be
isolated and over surrounding mts. Confidence is low for any storms
to track in the vicinity.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE