543
FXUS62 KTAE 110111
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
911 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

No updates appear necessary to the forecast at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

A cold front will be making its passage through the CWA this
evening. There may be a few scattered showers that develop along the
front later this afternoon. If any storms develop, they are not
expected to be severe.

Upper level troughing will continue through today and tomorrow but
at the surface, high pressure will build in following the front.
Behind the front, drier conditions with more seasonal temperatures.
Morning low temperatures will be in the low 60s Saturday morning.
High temperatures will be in the low to mid-80s north of I-10, and
mid to upper 80s along and south of I-10. Winds will be northerly,
with not much concern for gusts averaging around 10-15 mph. We can
expect mostly clear skies for Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 341 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Quiet weather continues through the short-term period thanks to
surface high pressure and weak ridging in place amidst a post-
frontal airmass. Sunday`s high/low temperature forecast is low-mid
80s/upper-low 60s. A warming/moistening trend gets underway heading
into Monday morning when winds turn southeasterly ahead of an
approaching storm system traversing the South-Central Plains.
Widespread lows in the mid 60s away from the immediate coast are on
tap for us Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Active weather defines the long-term period as a troughing
pattern becomes established over the East-Central US while a
robust westerly subtropical jet anchors itself across the Northern
Gulf States. Global models agree on a shortwave trough pushing
across the Midwest and sending showers/thunderstorms our way late
Monday or early Tuesday, which could evolve into a Mesoscale
Convective System (MCS). The environment should be adequately
sheared/unstable/moist to support potential dual threat for severe
weather and flooding. If the MCS mode comes to fruition, then
damaging winds, hail, and heavy rain would be the primary threats.
Embedded tornadoes would be a possibility as well. This system
clears our area mid-week with a narrow ridge quickly sliding
across in its wake. As such, expect temporarily dry conditions
Wednesday.

By Thursday, rain chances spread from south to north ahead of the
next storm system poised to develop over the Central Plains.
Another round of severe weather is a possible on Friday given the
negatively tilted nature of the attendant shortwave trough(s)
rotating near the Great Lakes. A front should accompany this
feature and help serve as focus for scattered to numerous
showers/thunderstorms that may organize into an MCS. Bottom line:
we are looking at two rounds of potentially impactful weather at
the beginning and end of the next work week.

Forecast high temperatures are mostly in the 80s with overnight
lows ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms well south of the TLH terminal
will continue to shift south and away from all terminals this
evening. A dry cold front will settle south across the terminals
late this evening and overnight, bringing a turn from gentle
westerly to northerly winds. The air mass will gradually dry out
over the next 24 hours, precluding any fog or low clouds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting SE winds less than 15 kts with 2-3
ft seas and a dominant period of 6 seconds late this afternoon.

From CWF Synopsis...Post-frontal offshore breezes overspread the
waters late tonight at cautionary levels. Weekend boating
conditions will be met with fair weather before chances for
showers and thunderstorms increase early next week with the
potential for impactful maritime convection on Tuesday. Northerly
winds turn more southeasterly ahead of the upcoming storm system.
Seas respond with waveheights in the 3 to 5 feet range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Over the next few days, expect fair to generally good
dispersions across the area with elevated to potentially high
dispersions possible in our northernmost SE AL and SW GA counties
tomorrow. Dry conditions are forecast tomorrow and Sunday following
this mornings active weather. Saturday and Sunday may see increasing
winds and a directional change to southerly, particularly along the
coast as the seabreeze pushes inland. On Monday, scattered showers
and thunderstorms will begin to enter our SE AL and FL Panhandle
counties in the morning to afternoon, gradually increasing in
coverage as the storms move east throughout the CWA with a possible
severe threat with these storms. Unsettled weather areawide is
expected to continue through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Radar-estimated precipitation over the past 24 hrs is widespread 1-2
inches, isolated 3-4+ from scattered strong to severe storms.
Thankfully, dry weather is on tap for us this weekend as we will
temporarily be post-frontal. Heavy rain concerns amplify next week
thanks to a couple of storm systems poised to move across the
region. The first is around Tuesday, followed by the second on
Friday. Forecast amounts by the WPC has an additional 3-4 inches,
which would prompt eventual riverine flooding (e.g., Ochlockonee
basin). Excessive Rainfall Outlooks in the Day 4/5 period place a
good chunk of the Tri-State area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4).

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   63  83  61  85 /  20   0   0   0
Panama City   65  83  66  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        59  80  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        59  80  59  82 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      62  82  59  84 /  20   0   0   0
Cross City    65  86  61  86 /  40   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  83  67  81 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...IG3