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000
FXUS62 KTAE 260054
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
854 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Minor edits were made to the hourly temperature, dew point, and
winds to account for the late afternoon Gulf seabreeze passage
that is currently crossing the FL state line. The other change of
note was expanding the mention of fog to include the Apalachicola
Nat`l Forecast towards Perry up to I-10 as the latest guidance
shows robust signals for overnight/early morning development.
Areas of fog are possible near sunrise, some of which could bring
visibility down to below 1 mile.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday) Issued at 337 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A stationary front just north of the forecasting region located
in GA alongside some weak upper level troughing is causing some
light westerly winds to prevail across the forecasting area today.
Skies will continue to have some scattered clouds during the day
today at all sites, and will generally clear out overnight.
Minimum temperatures are expected to go to the low 60s in AL, GA,
and Fl counties, with the potential for overnight-to-early-morning
fog development occuring at PCB and TLH. This will clear up once
the sun rises, and winds will shift southerly bringing a light sea
breeze. Maximum temperature should reach in the low 80s around
PCB, and upper 80s at inland FL, AL, and GA counties. There are no
chances for rain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night) Issued at 337 PM EDT Thu
Apr 25 2024

Upper-level ridging moves east over the region throughout the
short term. This will lead to large scale subsidence with surface
high pressure remaining locked in place. Dry conditions prevail,
fair- weather cu-field is possible.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 80s with
overnight lows generally in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 337 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Upper-level ridging remains in place across the eastern seaboard
throughout most of the long term. These warm and dry conditions
will prevail through Monday. On Tuesday a mid-level shortwave
looks to move eastward to our north, possibly inducing enough
forcing for some light showers across our Alabama and Georgia
counties. Otherwise, precip chances remain at or below 15%
throughout the period.

Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s, possibly in the low
90s by the middle of next week. Expect overnight lows generally in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 729 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Mainly VFR conds prevail thru this TAF cycle outside of late
tonight or early tmrw morning when MVFR or lower vsbys overtake
ECP/TLH/VLD. Highest confidence in flt restrictions is at ECP
where 1/2SM via fog is possible, followed by TLH (down to 2SM)
given the recent seabreeze passage. Used a combo of current
guidance and this morning`s obs for the fcst. Winds pick up out of
the SE after sunrise with another field of fair-wx Cu expected. A
southerly wind shift develops for ECP/TLH/DHN in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 844 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting light winds and low seas with a
dominant period up to 5 seconds late this evening.

From CWF Synopsis...Winds once again go light and variable
overnight, with a east and south east flow regime taking over on
Friday and continuing into the weekend. With a strong pressure
gradient developing, and the combination of the Atlantic
Seabreeze, expect cautionary/advisory level conditions to develop
for the weekend. The strongest winds are likely to be in the
overnight and early morning hours as the easterly surges from the
Atlantic seabreeze pass through.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Transport winds will be coming from the southeast Friday through
the upcoming weekend ranging from 10-20 mph. Dispersions this
weekend will become good-to-excellent during the day in AL, GA,
and FL Panhandle regions each day. Afternoons are expected to have
high mixing heights throughout the weekend. Each afternoon the
relative humidity will lower to mid-30s/low-40s, and near the
mid-50s along FL coasts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 844 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The Flood Warning for St Marks River - Newport was cancelled a
few hrs ago as the observations were just below its minor flood
stage threshold of 8 ft.

Minor flooding continues along the middle and lower Suwannee and
Aucilla Lamont. The latter falls below action stage by tomorrow
afternoon or evening. Little to no rainfall is expected during the
next week, there are no additional flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   62  87  65  86 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   63  82  67  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        63  87  65  84 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        61  87  64  84 /   0  10   0   0
Valdosta      61  87  64  84 /   0  10   0   0
Cross City    59  87  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  63  77  68  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Young/Brennan
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Oliver/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Young/Brennan
HYDROLOGY...Oliver/IG3