Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 250335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1135 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Issued at 1000 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Showers continue this evening, most widespread across northeast
lower Michigan where moisture and low level convergence is
maximized. Expect this area of rain to rotate slowly east, with
additional much more scattered showers to rotate overhead via
arrival of secondary area of upper level support. Definitely not
much rain as best moisture axis rotates east. May even see some
clearing later tonight, although hi-res guidance and evening rains
both suggest growing area of lower clouds towards sunrise,
especially across north central and northeast lower Michigan.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

...Rain chances end tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...None

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...A narrow band of moisture starved air
directly behind a cold front associated with a weak area of low
pressure over the Great Lakes region will diminish cloud cover
from northwest to southeast throughout the rest of the evening and
into the early nighttime hours. Rain chances mainly south of a
line extending from Alpena to Cadillac continue, but will also end
throughout the evening hours as it continues it`s march towards
the east. An associated upper level low with accompanying deeper
moisture behind said system will once again cloud the skies and
possibly produce some drizzle (according to forecast soundings)
over northern lower by sunrise and then dissipate throughout
Wednesday as high pressure ridges into the forecast area from the
upper midwest. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon will be in
the upper 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.Wednesday night through Friday...

...Warmer then Cooler...

Primary Forecast Concern...Pops late Thursday night into early Friday.

It looks like a roller coaster ride as far as temperatures go over
the next several days which is fairly typical of this time of the
year. This is mostly good news as far as ridding ourselves of the
highly unusual late April snowpack in the higher terrain. As far
as the details go, high pressure will lead to precipitation free
conditions Wednesday night into Thursday so after a chilly night
daytime highs should be warmer once again. A short wave and
associated surface cold front then swing through later Thursday
night into early Friday bringing small chances for showers as well
as cooler temperatures. Lows Wednesday night in the 20s to lower
30s. Highs Thursday ranging from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Lows
Thursday night mainly in the 30s with highs Friday only in the
middle 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

The extended period will begin with precip pulling out of the
area. Blended solutions bring dry air in pretty rapidly...but I`m
thinking some wrap around moisture...along with a bit of a north
flow lake contribution might cause moisture to lag a bit into least in the form of low level cloud cover. That
said...transient high pressure will move across the region through
the second half of the weekend and into the new work week.
Temperatures will moderate rapidly from Saturday to Monday...with
the warmest air of the year on the schedule for Monday and


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1132 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

High based showers will come to a gradual end early this morning.
Secondary band of moisture will swing south, perhaps bringing a
round of MVFR cigs by sunrise, especially across KAPN. Clouds
expected to gradually mix out later this morning, with skies
becoming mostly sunny/clear this afternoon and evening. North to
northwest winds expected, at times a bit gusty, through this
afternoon. Winds become light this evening.


Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

As high pressure starts to work in from the northwest, north to
northeasterly winds will increase this into tonight. Advisory-
level winds/waves are expected in some zones over Lake Michigan
tonight and then Lake Huron by morning Wednesday and last
throughout the day. Rain chances will remain over Lake Huron
through tonight.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ348-
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-342-


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