Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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822
FXUS65 KBYZ 202054
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
254 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...

Only a few minor changes this afternoon, mainly centered around
cleaning up collaboration. Overall forecast continues to be
consistent.

Cut-off upper low continues shift eastward from the four corners,
but remains well south of the CWA, with little impact. Look for
seasonal temperatures and dry conditions the remainder of today.

Saturday still looks to be quite warm, with some pre- frontal
warming ahead of a fast moving cold front. The front will push
through the region Saturday evening/night. The front does not
appear to have much moisture of upper level support for lift over
our region, so not expecting any precip to speak of, with the
exception of higher terrain and foothills of the Beartooths and
Pryors/Big Horns. Gusty northwest winds are expected for a few
hours following FROPA in most locations.

Cooler, and continued dry conditions are expected for much of the
day Sunday. Another disturbance will push into the region late
Sunday evening, bringing rain and snow to the Beartooth/Absaroka
and Crazy mountains and foothills. This system is expected to
spread precip across the region through the night. Mountains will
switch to all snow as colder air filters into the region, but rain
appears most likely across the plains. A rain/snow mix is
possible for the plains later in the night, but with little snow
accumulation expected, with the exception of higher hills across
the region. AAG




.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...


An upper low over the Pacific northwest coast Sunday will become
better organized Sunday night and especially Monday. Models bring
the low across the vicinity of the Montana/Wyoming border Monday
and Monday night. At the same time, a surface low will move across
central Wyoming while a surface high will be centered across
central Montana creating tight north/south pressure gradients
across our forecast area. This storm system will mainly be
dynamically driven with plenty of divergence aloft. Temperatures
may be cold enough across the plains for a rain/snow mix or all
snow Monday, especially during the morning. There could be some
snow accumulation on the grassy surfaces, but given the bulk of
the precip will be during the daytime hours, roads should remain
wet. However, uncertainty with these details remain so monitor
this forecast throughout the weekend. In any case, Monday looks to
be a windy, wet and cold day. Temperatures will only be in the
40s and this may be optimistic.

The system quickly exits the state late Monday night. High
pressure moves in Tuesday before an upper level disturbance drops
out of Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will bring a
chance for showers mainly to the mountains and foothills. High
pressure ridging and fair weather build back again for Thursday
and Friday. Temperatures are expected to rebound above normal
Wednesday and especially Thursday and Friday. Hooley
&&

.AVIATION...


A few showers will continue this evening over southeast Montana
and northeast Wyoming with local MVFR conditions, mainly along
and south of a Sheridan to Ekalaka line. Otherwise VFR conditions
expected through Saturday morning. Chambers


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/071 040/061 036/048 030/057 035/066 036/065 038/066
    00/U    10/B    47/O    21/U    01/U    11/U    00/U
LVM 033/067 036/063 035/046 025/056 031/064 033/063 035/063
    00/N    11/B    56/O    21/U    01/B    21/U    11/U
HDN 035/072 039/063 034/052 029/058 032/068 035/065 036/065
    10/U    10/B    36/R    31/U    01/U    11/U    00/U
MLS 037/067 038/062 036/051 030/056 035/066 035/064 036/063
    00/U    00/B    37/O    40/U    00/U    10/U    00/U
4BQ 035/064 037/060 037/053 031/054 034/064 034/063 036/061
    20/U    00/B    27/R    61/B    00/U    10/U    00/U
BHK 036/062 038/060 036/050 030/052 032/062 036/060 036/059
    10/N    00/B    16/R    71/B    00/U    10/U    00/U
SHR 034/067 035/065 034/050 028/056 030/066 033/063 035/064
    20/U    10/B    37/O    41/B    01/U    20/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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