Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
197 FXUS66 KHNX 100946 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 246 AM PDT Fri May 10 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warming trend will continue through Sunday. 2. By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures will be around 12 degrees above normal for this time of year. 3. High temperatures will remain well above seasonal norms Monday through Friday. 4. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada and the northeastern portion of Kern County mountains and desert Friday afternoon and early evening, and then again for Sunday and Monday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... A retrograding area of low pressure will be situated over the Great Basin this afternoon, which will increase instability for the Sierra Nevada and the northeastern portion of Kern County. This may lead to a few strong thunderstorms forming in those areas this afternoon and early evening. The Storm Prediction Center has also put this area under a risk for general thunderstorms, though the risk for severe thunderstorms very small. While this cut-of trough moves to the west, a ridge of high pressure will be above it, leading to a continued warming trend for the area through Sunday. High temperatures are expected to rise around 12 degrees above normal for the time of year. Here are the current probabilities for select valley locations reaching 95 degrees on Sunday: Fresno: 51% Hanford: 41% Lemoore: 41% Bakersfield: 36% Delano: 36% Madera: 36% Visalia: 36% Merced: 31% Porterville: 21% Reedley: 16% The cut-off is expected to begin moving east again by early Sunday as well, leading to a small ridge taking over the Great Basin. This ridge will quickly move east and a weak area of upper low pressure will move in by Monday, leading to increasing chances for thunderstorms for the Sierra Nevada that afternoon. Even with this weak trough, high temperatures are expected to remain consistent at 10 to 12 degrees above normal for the time of year through next Friday. Long range ensemble models are beginning to show a trough descending from farther north and having a greater impact on our high temperatures, some runs suggesting they may lower to just above season norms. This is also on May 19th, so the forecast that far out is uncertain right now. && .AVIATION... A few thunderstorms are expected over the Sierra Nevada after 18Z today, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail throughout Central California for at least the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 05/09/2024 13:56 EXPIRES: 05/10/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public/Aviation/Fire Weather......EW DSS/PIO...........................BS weather.gov/hanford