Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 162202

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
302 PM PDT Fri Mar 16 2018

A cold weather system will provide unsettled weather into Saturday
with showers and possible thunderstorms along with heavy rain and
snow over the sierra nevada. High pressure will begin moving into
the region Sunday bringing a return to warming and drying
conditions through early next week. Another storm system will
then begin impacting our area by the middle of next week.



The upper low spinning near the northwest California coast
continues to steer energy and some moisture across central CA
this afternoon. Some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
have developed across our area as a result. Short range hi-rez
convective models intensify this activity as it swings south
through later this evening. With favorable orographics and heavier
showers, we still expect to squeeze out enough qpf above the snow
levels around 4-5000 ft to keep winter weather highlights in
place through tonight. Another shortwave impulse dropping through
the upper low will swing through our area Saturday, continuing the
unsettled conditions. Snow levels are progged to drop near pass
levels in Kern County early Saturday morning, but there is not
expected to be significant accumulation there.

Models then agree that shortwave ridging will settle into the
region Sunday into Tuesday bringing dry conditions with warming
temperatures. By Monday and Tuesday we should see highs return to
near seasonal norms for mid March.

Models remain similar with the next developing upper low over the
northeast Pacific for the second half of next week. By later
Tuesday into Wednesday, this low is progged to lift a significant
plume of subtropical moisture into central California. This will
bring additional rain and higher elevation snow to our area as the
trough swings inland through Thursday. Precipitation amounts and
impacts from this system will be refined with additional model


Areas of MVFR conditions due to showers in the San Joaquin Valley,
along with local IFR in heavier showers through 12Z Saturday, then
developing again around 18Z Saturday. Also expect areas of
terrain obscuration due to clouds/precipitation in the Sierra
Nevada and adjacent foothills, as well as the Kern County
mountains during the period. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail for the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday ABOVE 5000 FEET

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Saturday CAZ096.



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