Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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198
FXUS61 KOKX 271341
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
941 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain south of the area today and
tonight. By Memorial Day, high pressure builds to the north,
then into the region through midweek. Low pressure may impact
the region for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The flash flood watch has been cancelled as the area of rain
moves east and out of the watch area. A stationary front through
southern New Jersey and south of Long Island will remain through
the day. Meanwhile an upper shortwave continues to track east
of the Great Lakes and through the northeast. The main vort max
generating the steady rainfall was now moving through the area
with the steady precipitation coming to an end. As the
shortwave tracks through with additional weaken energy, the
chance of precipitation will continue through the day. A cooler
and stable airmass was now in place and will not mention any
convection.

Temperature will likely hold nearly steady through the day.
Updated probabilities, temperatures, and dew points into early
this afternoon. Winds will be gusty E/NE behind the front.

There is a high risk of rip current development at the ocean
beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As weak mid and upper level trough passes, weak cyclogenesis along
the front occurs south of the area. This low passes east in time,
and drier conditions work in from the north. Still expect plenty of
clouds tonight and into Monday, but rain chances diminish steadily.

Lows tonight will be fairly uniform across the area due to the
clouds and northeasterly wind flow. temperatures will fall to the
lower to mid 50s across the region.

On Monday, clouds in the morning may break for at least a few peeks
of sun in the afternoon, especially north of NYC and into Srn CT.
Temperatures remain below normal, but will be closer to normal
levels, mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A broad area of high pres will build over the region thru Wed.
There will be a backdoor cfp on Tue. The timing is slightly faster
than yesterday`s model suite, thereby suppressing the instability
and chcs for shwrs to the s. The GFS is slower than the ECMWF and
NAM, which is why pcpn is initiated closer to the cwa. The fcst
remains dry. The dry wx then holds thru Wed, then increasing thetae
could allow for some isold-sct shwrs and tstms on Thu. The modeling
is not too aggressive attm wrt qpf, as the organized dpva is progged
to remain w of the region closer to the main sys. Pops remain
limited to slgt chc as a result. The main low, which is the remnants
of Alberto, is progged to traverse the area Fri and Sat. This would
present a better chc for organized rainfall, which could be locally
hvy. The 12z data focuses the low on nrn New England, but this is
likely to change over time, as is did from the prev 12z runs. Pw
around 2 inches is suggested invof the low which seems reasonable
based on the subtropical origins. The nbm was used for all but Tue
high temps where the warmer Superblend was used.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front has passed through, with prevailing ENE flow,
strongest at KBDR/KGON. A few gusts to 20-25 kt will be
possible, especially this morning across area terminals.

Seeing primarily MVFR conds but with IFR beginning to spread
westward into KHPN and KISP. It is possible IFR will develop
sooner than forecast elsewhere.

Instability is primarily to the south of the terminals, though
it`s possible we could see a few lightning strikes in the
vicinity of the city terminals and KISP.

Rain should come to an end at the NYC metro terminals by 18Z-
19Z, but should take longer elsewhere, and may hang on into the
evening at KGON.

LIFR cigs expected late tonight at KGON; possibly also KISP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Monday...MVFR cigs expected in the morning, then VFR.
.Tuesday-Wednesday...VFR.
.Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas forecast were not updated at this time. Updated
weather and probabilities across the waters.

Increasing northeasterly winds are expected as a stationary
front remains south, and high pressure moves to the northeast.
SCA already issued for the ocean waters, and added eastern LI
Sound and Peconic and Gardiners Bays earlier to the advisory for
this afternoon through the evening. Winds diminish tonight as
low pressure passes well east, riding along the stationary
front, and the pressure gradient relaxes.

Rough ocean seas today subside tonight and Monday. Do not have
enough confidence to extend the SCA for the eastern ocean waters
at this time into Monday, but 5 footers may linger into the morning.

Winds are expected to remain blw sca lvls Mon-Thu. 5 ft seas are
possible Mon on the ocean, otherwise they will stay blw sca lvls
thru Thu.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Additional average basin rainfall amounts through today are expected
to be !/4 to around 1/3 of an inch with the highest along the
coast. No significant hydrologic impacts are expected today.

No significant hydrologic impacts are anticipated tonight
through Thu. There is a low potential for locally heavy rain
Fri-Sat.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
At this time, expect combo of E-NE flow and high celestial
tides with the upcoming full moon Tue morning to push water
levels right up to minor coastal flooding thresholds along the
south shore back bays of Nassau County and southern Queens
county with the evening high tide cycle. Believe the western
Long Island Sound falls just short.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ330-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...19/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...19/PW
HYDROLOGY...19/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...



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