Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 270525
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1125 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018

Updated forecast to expire Red Flag warning for the higher terrain
and I-25 corridor.

Red Flag conditions will once again be possible over the higher
terrain and I-25 corridor region tomorrow afternoon and early
evening. Isolated severe storms will be possible over the far
eastern plains late tomorrow afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for areas along the I-25
corridor and westward thru this evening.  Gusty winds and low
humidities have developed over much of the Red Flag Warning area
this afternoon.  Early this afternoon Colorado Springs tied the
record high of 90 and there is still a chance the record will be
broken. Pueblo broke the record high this afternoon when the temp
reached 98 degrees. The old record in Pueblo was 97 degrees.

An upper level low over the Great Basin is expected to move a little
eastward thru the next 24 hrs, but remaining over the Great Basin.
This will continue to bring southerly winds to the area, with the
windiest periods being in the afternoon and early evening hours
today and Sunday. A lot of high clouds have spread over the area,
and tonight a lot of mid and high level clouds are expected. Late
tonight, a weak disturbance moving over the area, could bring a few
showers to mainly the mtn areas.  On Sunday, gusty winds and low
humidities are expected again and a Red Flag Warning will remain in
effect for the same areas as today, where the fuels are dry.  Temps
will again be above average with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s
acrs the plains, and in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the high
valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018

Models and ensembles in generally agreement through the extended
period leading to higher confidence in the forecast. The main
differences will be the details, such as where drylines develop
and set up allowing for convection, especially early in the
period.

Sunday night through Monday...convection Sunday evening will be
ongoing out near the Kansas border. Much depends on where the
dryline develops and how far east it pushes before convective
development occurs. Current GFS and NAM solutions do have initial
thunderstorms over our area, pushing east into western Kansas
through the evening. Large hail and strong winds along with
lightning look to be the primary threats. Elsewhere, modest
instability may lead to a few thunderstorms and showers over the
mountains, but coverage looks minimal at this time. In addition,
Red Flag conditions will prevail through the evening hours, before
diminishing overnight due to humidity recoveries across the
Plains.

For Monday, a broad upper trough is forecast to eject northeast
across Colorado and into the Northern Plains. The main energy with
this system looks to remain to our north, however, there will once
again be the potential for a dryline to develop out near the
Kansas border. Current model solutions have the dryline in western
Kansas by late afternoon with thunderstorm development to our
east. The other model hot spot for convection looks to be over
northeast Colorado nearer the main vort max as it lifts northeast
of the area. Expect scattered showers by the afternoon hours over
the mountains, and into the Palmer Divide area, before clearing
northeast overnight. Southwest flow over the San Luis Valley, east
into southern I-25 corridor will once again lead to increased fire
weather concerns for these areas.

Tuesday into Thursday...the main upper level trough will shift
east of the area with weak high pressure passing across the area.
Several embedded disturbances will likely bring the potential for
at least scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area through
Thursday. The main threats will be small hail and lightning. Areas
over the Central Mountains and Palmer Divide region will be
favored for thunderstorms at this time. Weaker winds with the high
pressure aloft will keep critical fire weather concerns at a
minimum for this time period.

Friday into Saturday...a quick moving upper level shortwave trough
is forecast to move across the area heading into the weekend.
There is not much moisture to work with and a northerly track at
this time would bring another round of dangerous fire weather
conditions to the area Friday into Saturday. This is a long ways
out but needs to be monitored.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites; KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Gusty southwest winds will occur
at KALS tomorrow afternoon while at KPUB and KCOS winds will be
gusty from the south-southeast.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ220>230.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH


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