Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 220730
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
330 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today-Monday)... Main northern stream U/L flow
will retreat north over Canada and the extreme northern
tier of the CONUS. A southern stream cut-off U/L low will
push slowly across the Lower Mississippi Valley today...and
edge toward the Tennessee Valley tonight and Monday.

At the surface, high pressure along the mid Atlantic coast
extending south across the Florida peninsula will move over
the western Atlantic late today and tonight pulling away
from the forecast area. Significant plume of moisture over
west central and southwest Florida from the surface to about
60H with conditionally unstable sounding in place. Daytime
heating today will allow atmosphere to destabilize with
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop across
west central and southwest Florida...with the greatest
coverage likely this afternoon along the west coast sea
breeze boundary over the coastal counties.

As the frontal boundary approaches from the west tonight,
sufficient lift will remain in place for scattered showers
and possibly a thunderstorm across the forecast area.
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
will increase in areal coverage with daytime heating on
Monday as the frontal boundary approaches the west coast of
Florida late in the day. Increasing southwest boundary layer
flow off the Gulf of Mexico through the day should shift
highest pops to the east during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
A strong cutoff low will linger over the Tennessee Valley
at the start of the long term period. this feature will
bring strong west/southwest upper flow to the region with
abundant cloudiness and chances for rain. A shortwave trough
rounding the base of the larger upper cyclone will
eventually kick a cold front through the peninsula, with
drier and slightly cooler weather in its wake.

Showers and a few storms may be ongoing Monday night as
weak upper height falls remain over the region. This
activity will likely shift eastward quickly however, with
stout west/southwest winds through the troposphere. A
shortwave trough will move through the base of the upper
low, nudging a cold front southeastward. This front will
spread southeastward overnight Monday night and through the
day on Tuesday. With strong upper forcing, at least
scattered showers and a few storms will likely occur along
and ahead of the front.

By Wednesday, weak high pressure will settle in over the
region with drier more stable conditions expected. While the
airmass will be a bit drier, it doesn`t look to be
significantly cooler, though temperatures should at least
hover near seasonal normals with highs in the low to mid 80s
and lows in the lower 60s most areas.

The next chance of rain will come toward the end of the
week or early next weekend as another trough and front
approach. Will maintain mention of rain, though confidence
is low regarding timing and potential amount.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR CIGS vcnty all terminals this morning, with
widespread VFR CIGS through the remainder of the day. Sct
showers will create LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, with ISOLD IFR
VSBYS associated with thunderstorms...with the best chance
for shower/thunderstorms at all terminals during the
mid/late afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated east to southeast winds over the northern waters
early this morning, but no SCA conditions are expected for
the next several days. Winds predominately 15 knots or less
with seas 3 feet or less through the period. Main hazard
will be from isolated thunderstorm activity today through
Tuesday with strong gusty winds possible creating locally
rough seas...and cloud to water lightning strikes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather hazards are expected today or Sunday as
relative humidity values are expected to remain above
critical levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  86  71  81  70 /  40  30  30  30
FMY  89  71  87  71 /  30  20  30  30
GIF  85  69  86  69 /  50  30  40  40
SRQ  84  71  82  70 /  20  20  30  30
BKV  84  66  83  65 /  50  30  40  30
SPG  81  72  83  71 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/Oglesby
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...84/Austin


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