Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Southeast RFC

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FGUS62 KALR 071840

Eastern Region
NWS Southeast River Forecast Center, Atlanta GA
200 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...The spring outlook calls for above normal potential for flooding
across southern Virginia, North and South Carolina...

Historically for the Carolinas and southern Virginia the river flood
season begins in early to mid January.  The number of river flood
events increases through late winter with a peak in early to mid
March and ending in April for the region. The forecast for above
normal flooding means that flooding will likely be more widespread
and more frequest than typical.

Overall...Mid winter has seen a break in the wet pattern the
southeast U.S. had seen from fall into early winter.   Even though
there has been a break in the rain, the potential for flooding is
still above normal with many rivers still above normal, ground
conditions still wet, and the potential for above normal rain still

Past Precipitation...In the last 30 days, based on SERFC multisensor
precipitation estimates, most of North Carolina, South Carolina, and
Virginia have seen below normal precipitation.  The exception to
that is coastal North Carolina which has seen above normal rainfall.
That above normal rainfall has been outside of SERFC river basins
and will not affect river forecasts.  The 60 and 90 day departures
from normal precipitation still show above normal over most of the

28-day average streamflows...All of the area is at least normal for
this time of year with many USGS stations showing above normal and
some much above normal.   Even the current daily averages show near
normal for most of the area.

Reservoirs...Reservoirs throughout the region remain at or above
their target pool levels for early February.

Snow pack...There is no significant snowpack in Virginia and the
Carolinas at this time.

Short term rainfall...The 7-day period ending February 14 shows
totals up to an inch of rain in the western portions of the area and
tapering off as you get closer to the coast to about a quarter inch.
Normal rainfall in the area is about an inch a week for this time of

Long term precipitation...Based on CPC long lead outlooks, February
still indicates above normal precipitation for the month over the
whole area.   The seasonal outlook from February through April shows
chances for closer to normal during that time period...with a slight
chance for above normal as it gets closer to the coast.  To see the
forecast from the Climate Prediction Center. here is the link:

The SERFC issues a variety of products through the year to update
the outlook for water resources.   The SERFC water resources outlook
is updated each month and can be found a the following address:

You can also find it from our home page which is located at
www.weather.gov/serfc.   In the Water Supply pulldown menu is the
Water Resources Outlook.


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