Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 202243

National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
February 20, 2019

                       FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

Great Salt Lake, Sevier, Virgin, Price/San Rafael and Duchesne
River Basins.

The 2019 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is average for the
Bear and Weber River Basins and slightly above average for the Provo, Six Creeks,
Duchesne, San Rafael, Sevier and Virgin river basins. February precipitation has
been much above average ranging between 200-500% of average and snowpacks in some
areas are already above their yearly peak values, especially in Southern Utah.
Snowpacks as of today in Utah are near and above average ranging from 100 to 170
percent of the 30 year median. Water Year precipitation now ranges from 116-131
percent of average.

Recent precipitation events have increased volume forecasts to from below average
to average and above average for all Utah Basins. Given these increases and the
current snow pack it follows that we have a greater than average potential for
larger than average spring peaks at this point in time.

It should be emphasized that snow accumulation conditions could change quite a
bit before the runoff begins. Although spring temperatures affect the pattern of
snowmelt runoff and consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also
roughly correspond to volumetric flows. It is also important to keep in mind that
an extended period of much above normal temperatures or heavy rainfall during the
melt period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.

CBRFC/B.Bernard, A.Nielson, Z.Finch


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