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FNUS28 KWNS 202034

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

An extended period of elevated to critical fire weather conditions
is expected across the central/southern High Plains vicinity during
the Day 3-8 period. An upper ridge will be centered over the Rockies
on Thursday morning will shift east over the Plains by Friday
morning as an upper trough over the eastern Pacific migrates inland.
Deep-layer southwesterly flow will begin to increase as this occurs
and weak lee surface trough will develop across the High Plains.
Some breezy downslope winds will be possible as dry and warm
conditions are expected. Some spotty elevated to critical conditions
could occur near higher terrain from southeast AZ into southeast CO.

A better chance for critical fire weather conditions is expected on
Friday when the upper ridge breaks down and a shortwave trough
migrates across the southern Rockies. This will result in a stronger
lee cyclone developing over eastern CO and tracking into western KS
by Friday evening. Behind a surface dryline, strong downslope
westerly surface winds are expected with low RH values and warm
temperatures, which will align with very dry fuel conditions.

Areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue
across the southern High Plains vicinity through at least the
weekend as an amplified upper ridge over the eastern U.S. blocks the
progression of the western trough. This will maintain enhanced
deep-layer southwesterly flow over the southern Rockies vicinity and
as weak shortwave impulse eject from the larger-scale western
trough, periods of gusty winds will occur in conjunction with
continued dry conditions. By the end of the period early next week,
medium range guidance varies in the evolution of the western trough
and confidence is low regarding fire weather potential.

..Leitman.. 03/20/2018

...Please see for graphic product...

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