429
FNAK79 PAFG 182155
FWSAFG

Spot Forecast for 435 - Polly...Bureau of Land Management
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
155 PM AKDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 AKDT on July 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Warming and drying continues under a high pressure ridge through the
weekend. Low level atmospheric stability will allow scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop through Sunday afternoon.
Precipitation will be hit or miss. Winds will remain light. Highs in
the lower 80s with minimum humidities 25-35% are expected. There should
be enough instability and dryness to increase fire activity the next
couple days. More moisture moves up in westerly flow aloft next week.
This will eventually spread widespread showers over this fire area by
Wednesday and Thursday. Wetting rains are expected at that time.
Temperatures cool into the 60s. Gusty west-northwest winds are
expected Tuesday into Thursday.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
                    evening, then isolated rain showers overnight.
CWR.................10 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......Isolated.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near any thunderstorms in the evening.
Ridgetop wind.......Northeast 5 mph.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....North around 5 mph.
Inversion setup.....Around 2200 AKDT.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms.
CWR.................10 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......Isolated.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast 3 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near any thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......Northeast 7 mph.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL increasing to 4400 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....North around 4 mph.
Inversion burnoff...Around 1100 AKDT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Isolated
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Isolated rain
                    showers through the night.
CWR.................10 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......Isolated.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast 2 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near any thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......Northeast 5 mph.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....North around 3 mph.
Inversion setup.....Around 2200 AKDT.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms.
CWR.................10 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......Isolated.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North 3 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near any thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......North 6 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL increasing to 4000 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 4 mph.
Inversion burnoff...Around 1100 AKDT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. Northwest around 7 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest around 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Cloudy with widespread rain. Cooler. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in
the lower 60s. Northwest winds around 7 mph.

$$
Forecaster...MAIER
Requested by...Upper Yukon Zone
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517860.9/AFG
.DELDT 07/18/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL akyfdc@firenet.gov,kshields@blm.gov,bpitts@blm.gov