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FNAK79 PAFG 150312
FWSAFG

Spot Forecast for 382 Tsukon...Bureau of Land Management
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
712 PM AKDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1915 AKDT on July 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for thunderstorms in the area

Cooler conditions are expected at the fire site, with highs
falling into the upper 60s and min RH values in the upper 40s and
lower 50s. Scattered showers will be possible through Tuesday
afternoon, with a slight chance for wetting rains.

Widely scattered thunderstorms will also be possible tonight,
posing a chance for brief gusty winds and heavy rain. As of the
issuance of this forecast, there was an area of showers to the
southwest of the fire over the Yukon River west of Fort Yukon,
with an estimated arrival time of around 2000 to 2100 AKDT, should
it manage to remain mostly intact. The current heading would
bring these showers directly over the fire. Lightning activity has
diminished in the past 30 minutes or so, but there is still the
potential for lightning to resume before arrival. Outflow winds
from showers and storms precede them, so there could still be
some brief wind gusts preceding the arrival of any showers or
storms.

Thunderstorms do not appear likely after tonight, but southwest
winds will generally blow as high as 20 mph at the lower levels
through the next couple days, especially during the daytime
periods, when ridgetop winds could gust down to the lower levels.
Lighter winds are expected Thursday.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and widely scattered thunderstorms in
                    the evening. Haze through the night. Areas of
                    smoke overnight.
CWR.................10 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......Widely Sct.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 17 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL decreasing to 800 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....West around 13 mph.
Inversion setup.....0000 AKDT.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Haze through the
                    day. Isolated showers in the morning. Scattered
                    showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................1 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 36
                    mph in the afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL increasing to 4500 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 21 mph.
Inversion burnoff...1100 AKDT.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Haze in the
                    evening. Isolated rain showers in the evening.
CWR.................2 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 33 mph decreasing to 7 to 8 mph
                    overnight.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL decreasing to 1300 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 20 mph.
Inversion setup.....0000 AKDT.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL increasing to 5400 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph.
Inversion burnoff...1000 AKDT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. Light
winds.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. Light
winds.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 70s.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.

$$
Forecaster...SALTZMAN
Requested by...Upper Yukon Zone
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517512.12/AFG
.DELDT 07/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL akyfdc@firenet.gov,bpitts@blm.gov