Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 291527
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Sheridan Piles RX-D4...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
927 AM MDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MDT on July 29.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Current observations indicate a very moist environment at the
site, with dewpoints in the low 60s. RH may be higher than
forecast as a result. This also corresponds to the 70% chance of
precipitation midday through this evening. Heavy rain and gusty
winds will be the primary threats. Scattered storms will remain
through the weekend, each afternoon becoming slightly more
favorable with locally heavy rain possible. Temps near normal to
slightly below each afternoon. Fair to good ventilation through
Saturday, then decreasing to poor whilst min RH stay in the 30 to
45% range.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1000, then 3 until 1200, then 5.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........Around 40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 9 mph with gusts to around 15
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500-2100 ft AGL increasing to 9000-9900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 11 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5000 knot-ft) increasing to good (78800
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........51     59     59     59
Weather cov.....S CHNC LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHNC LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).10     60     70     70
LAL.............3      5      5      5
Temp............73     81     84     83
RH..............70     45     40     40
20 ft wind......NE 4   S 8    E 9    E 7
20 ft wind gust.12     12     15     13
Mix hgt (ft)....2100   5900   9000   9900
Transport wind..SE 6   SE 10  SE 12  SE 12
Haines index....3      3      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5      79     79     79
Ventrate Cat....POOR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms, especially early.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................4.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming east 5 to 6 mph
                    late in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......8100 ft AGL decreasing to 0-100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 4 to 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM
Sky (%).........62     62     62     49     49     49
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).50     50     50     50     40     40
LAL.............5      5      5      5      4      4
Temp............80     75     70     68     66     64
RH..............41     52     61     65     68     70
20 ft wind......N 5    N 2    NE 3   E 5    E 5    E 5
20 ft wind gust.13     4      6      6      6      6
Mix hgt (ft)....8100   3600   100    100    100    BLW100
Transport wind..SE 10  SE 7   SE 3   E 2    E 2    E 5
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..32     32     32     0      0      0
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................4.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......0-900 ft AGL increasing to 10700-10900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (13100 knot-ft) increasing to good (78500
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      5 AM      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM
Sky (%).........17        17        22        22
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).40        40        40        40
LAL.............4         4         4         4
Temp............62        66        77        84
RH..............70        68        43        31
20 FT wind......E 6       SE 6      SE 8G10   SE 10
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100    900       8500      10900
Transport wind..E 6       E 8       SE 10     SE 9
Haines index....2         3         3         3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13        13        79        79
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      GOOD      GOOD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. East winds around 6 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. North winds around 6 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. North winds around 6 mph.

$$
Forecaster...DELIZIO
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2116590.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/29/21
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov


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