150
FNUS75 KGJT 140918
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Sowbelly...BLM-CO-SWD
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
318 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0400 MDT on July 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Hot and dry conditions will continue with afternoon winds picking
up each day and night time winds remaining light and down valley.
A weak disturbance is expected to shift winds northwest Tuesday
afternoon. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected on the
terrain today and Tuesday. The threat for dry lightning and gusty
outflow winds continue. A weak chance for wetting rains does
exist, but confidence is low that we will manage measurable rain
today and tomorrow. Later in the week wetting rain chances
improve. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected as
winds remain below thresholds.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....90-95.
Min humidity........9-14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 mph shifting to the west in the
                    afternoon at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair increasing to excellent in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7500 ft AGL increasing to 14500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 mph shifting to the west 15 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...15 percent.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....57-62.
Max humidity........35-40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5-10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good decreasing to poor (3000 knot-ft)
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......12600 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL
                    overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 mph.
Chance of thunder...5 percent.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and dry thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....90-95.
Min humidity........9-14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southerly winds 5 mph shifting to the northwest in the
                    afternoon at 8-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.
Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL increasing to 11000 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 15 mph.
Chance of thunder...15 percent.

$$
Forecaster...Lucas Boyer
Requested by...James Savage
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517847.2/GJT
.DELDT 07/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL JSavage@blm.gov