Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 251125
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Poison Springs...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
625 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on July 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

Please contact our office at (800) 482-8471 and ask for the fire
weather forecaster if you have any questions or concerns with this
forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Hot and humid conditions will prevail today, along with a slight
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

.REST OF TODAY...

Max temperature.....77 at ignition...Max 96.
Min humidity........91 percent at ignition...Min 49 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 1 to 7 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds southwest at 1 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Dispersion..........5 increasing to 12 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 very low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Rainfall amount.....0.01 inches.
1700 Ft Mix Temp....94.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4039 ft MSL.
Category Day........2.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 3800 ft AGL.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............77  80  84  88  90  92  94  95  96  95  95
RH..............91  84  76  69  62  56  52  51  50  49  52
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   W   W   NW  W   W   W   SW
20 FT wind spd..1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  W   NW  NW  W   W   W   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.1   3   6   7   6   3   2   2   3   3   2
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20

.TONIGHT...

Min temperature.....Min 75.
Max humidity........Max 97 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Transport winds.....West 1 to 2 mph.
Stability class.....F.
20 Foot Winds.......Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the evening.
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Dispersion..........4 early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire
                    growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.01 inches.
1700 Ft Mix Temp....MISSING.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 2567 ft MSL.
Category Day........1.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2300 ft AGL.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MCR PC  MC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MC
Weather cov.....SCH
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........SCH
Temp............93  91  89  86  83  81  80  79  78  78  77  76
RH..............54  59  66  73  81  81  84  87  89  88  91  93
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  NW  N
20 FT wind spd..2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
20 FT wind gust.        2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  W   W   W   NW  W
Transp wind spd.2   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1
Chc of pcpn (%).20  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

.MONDAY...

Max temperature.....Max 96.
Min humidity........Min 49 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 1 to 3 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Dispersion..........5.
Haines Index........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire
                    growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.30 inches.
1700 Ft Mix Temp....94.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 6199 ft MSL.
Category Day........1.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 6000 ft AGL.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR PC  PC  MCR MCR PC
Weather cov.....                            CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............76  75  79  83  86  89  92  93  94  95  96  94
RH..............92  97  88  77  72  63  59  56  54  51  49  52
20 FT wind dir..SW  N   S   NE  SE  S   SE  E   SE  S   SW  S
20 FT wind spd..1   0   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.2       2   2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SW  W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.1   1   2   2   3   3   2   2   2   1   1   1
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  40  40  40  40  40

$$
Forecaster...44
Requested by...Erick Rietschier
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2116386.0/LZK
.DELDT 07/25/21
.EMAIL erietschier@tnc.org


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