Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FNUS72 KMLB 271041
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Triple N Ranch - Yates south...FWC
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
641 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on July 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Expect scattered showers and a few lightning storms to
develop near the burn site toward noon, with coverage increasing to
numerous through late afternoon. Poor to fair morning smoke
dispersion will become fair to good from mid to late afternoon.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the morning. Showers
                    and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1100, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the morning
                    and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100-2200 ft AGL increasing to 39000-4500 ft AGL
                    through the afternoon
Transport winds.....South 5 mph increasing to 8-10 mph by late afternoon.
Dispersion index....10 increasing to 20 through early afternoon, then
                    increasing to 30-38 in the mid-late afternoon.
LVORI...............4 decreasing to 1 in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........22  22  30  30  30  48  48  48  65
Weather cov.....        CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  30  30  30  60  60  60  60
LAL.............1   1   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............83  86  89  91  93  94  94  93  91
RH..............80  70  64  58  54  51  51  54  58
20 FT wind dir..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   8
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 2.2 3.4 4.0 4.5 4.4 4.0 3.9 2.9
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5   5   5   6   8   10
Dispersion idx..6   13  19  20  20  21  30  38  25
LVORI...........4   3   2   2   2   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms early in the
                    evening, then slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2000, then 1-8 strikes until
                    2300, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 6 mph early in the
                    evening shifting to the southwest, then
                    shifting to the southeast around 5 mph early in
                    the evening becoming light. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......300-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 2 to 9 mph.
Dispersion index....13 decreasing to 3 early in the evening.
LVORI...............3 increasing to 9.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........65     65     65     44     25     25
Weather cov.....LIKELY S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60     20     20     10     10     10
LAL.............3      2      2      1      1      1
Temp............88     82     78     78     77     75
RH..............66     82     91     91     90     97
20 ft wind......SE 6   SE 5   S 2    S 2    S 2    SW 2
20 ft wind gust.
Mix hgt (ft)....1600   600    400    300    400    300
Transport wind..S 9    SW 6   SW 3   SW 2   SW 3   SW 2
Dispersion idx..16     4      2      1      1      1
LVORI...........3      5      7      7      8      9

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the morning. Showers
                    and thunderstorms likely early in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0800, then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......400-1500 ft AGL increasing to 2500-4100 ft AGL
                    late in the morning, then increasing to
                    3900-5300 ft AGL in the afternoon decreasing to
                    3200 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 2 to 8 mph.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 17 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 33 late in the morning increasing
                    to 44 early in the afternoon decreasing to 29.
LVORI...............10 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........23        17        24        44
Weather cov.....          CHANCE    CHANCE    LIKELY
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........          CHANCE    CHANCE    LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).10        60        60        60
LAL.............1         4         4         4
Temp............74        81        89        92
RH..............100       82        61        54
20 FT wind......S 2       SW 5G7    W 6G12    SW 5G13
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1500      4100      4600
Transport wind..W 2       W 5       W 8       W 7
Dispersion idx..1         8         37        40
LVORI...........10        4         1         1

$$
Forecaster...Cristaldi
Requested by...Steve Glass
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2116453.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/27/21
.EMAIL steve.glass@myfwc.com


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