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000
FXUS01 KWBC 260811
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Valid 12Z Sat May 26 2018 - 12Z Mon May 28 2018

...Severe weather possible over the next few days across the High
Plains...

...Subtropical Storm Alberto will bring heavy rainfall across the
central and eastern Gulf Coast in addition to the Southeast...

...Well above average high temperatures expected through the
weekend from the Plains to the Upper Great Lakes...

As a cutoff low drifts over the Great Basin, a surface front will
move across the Intermountain West. With enough moisture and
instability in place, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop in the northern High Plains this afternoon. These storms
could become severe--thus the Storm Prediction Center has a slight
risk over northeastern Montana and western North Dakota. By
Sunday, the threat of severe weather shifts eastward as the cutoff
low shifts eastward.  Showers and thunderstorms will increase in
coverage by Sunday afternoon along the northern High Plains. By
Monday morning, showers and embedded thunderstorms will extend
into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes.

Subtropical Storm Alberto will continue a general northerly path
from the northwest Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Copious amounts of moisture from Alberto will be pulled across
Florida and the central Gulf Coast. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop this morning mostly along the coast and expand across most
of Florida and the Southeast by this afternoon. In addition,
showers and thunderstorms will extend northward from the central
Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. As Alberto moves closer to
the Gulf Coast on Sunday, rain will continue throughout Florida
into coastal Mississippi. By Monday morning, an axis of heavier
rainfall is expected along the South Carolina coast. Flash
flooding is a threat for most of the Southeast this weekend--with
a moderate risk of flash flooding possible especially in the
Mobile, Alabama area. Remember to turn around, don`t drown. For
specifics on flash flooding, please see WPC`s Excessive Rainfall
Outlook. In addition to the potential for tornadoes with this
system, check the Storm Prediction Center (www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov).
 For the latest on the track and intensity of Alberto, see the
National Hurricane Center (www.hurricanes.gov).

Temperatures heading into the holiday weekend will vary in terms
of respect to climatology depending on the region. The Southeast
will generally be below normal due to the wet conditions from
Alberto. The Great Basin and West Coast will also be below normal
as a cold front and showers and thunderstorms sweep across the
area. Areas from the northern and central Plains to the Upper
Great Lakes will be nearly 20 degrees above normal throughout the
weekend! Expect high temperatures throughout these areas to be in
the mid to upper 90s.  West Texas can also expect temperatures to
reach the century mark--with these temperatures being 10 to 15
degrees above normal.

Reinhart


Graphics available at
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$





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