Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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664 FXUS64 KBRO 080254 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 954 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Key Message: - Hot and unseasonably warm temperature are expected through the short term. -A Heat Advisory is in effect Wednesday afternoon from 1 PM to 7 PM for inland, Cameron, inland Willacy, inland Kenedy, Hidalgo and Brooks counties. -Moderate risk of rip currents through Wednesday. Zonal to slightly southwesterly flow aloft over the short term period will lead to abnormally warm temperatures, heat indices in the triple digits and dry conditions. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide southerly flow. Low pressure across the Sierra Madre will lead to an increased pressure gradient and slightly increased winds along the coast east afternoon. We continue to see abundant cloud cover today, but as we head into later this afternoon we should see a bit more clearing in the afternoon. Lets talk heat. Temperatures this afternoon will be well above normal but thanks to lingering cloud cover, heat indices will likely remain just shy of Heat Advisory criteria. For Wednesday, temperatures are expected to be warmer with highs rising into the 90s and low triple digits across the region. Heat indices will rise to between 104 degrees and 113 degrees across the entire CWA away from the Island with the highest heat indices along the I-69C corridor. A Heat Advisory has been issued for inland Cameron, inland Willacy, inland Kenedy, Brooks, and Hidalgo counties with heat indices between 111 degrees and 113 degrees Wednesday afternoon. Overnight temperatures will be warm with lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Hot temperatures will continue to be the main concern for the start of the long term period. As the dryline over Central Texas shifts further east Thursday temperatures will again rise into the triple digits. Higher dewpoints east of the dryline will likely support heat indices in the 111-115 range roughly along and east of I-69C Thursday afternoon. A passing upper level shortwave looks to support the passage of a cold front Thursday night into Friday. This will likely bring more seasonal temperatures for the weekend, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Easterly to southeasterly surface winds look to return by Sunday, bringing a slight increase in temperatures and moisture. Rain chances look to remain fairly low through the period, however increased forcing and ample instability could support a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms along the cold front Friday. Additional rain chances look possible through the day Saturday as weak overrunning looks to setup behind the front. With the return of easterly to southeasterly surface winds Sunday, increased moisture and instability could again support a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for rain looks to be Sunday, with PoPs around 20-30%. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 944 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 IR fog and stratus satellite channels indicating low level marine layer expanding inland with MVFR ceilings covering most of the forecast region. Expect ceilings to lower a bit more and possibly drop into IFR category a few hours after midnight or closer to sunrise. Lower ceilings to persist into mid morning before quickly mixing out and dissipating between 16-18Z, with VFR prevailing the remainder of the TAF period. Some patchy MVFR to IFR fog may develop at KBRO an KHRL around sunrise if winds lower sufficiently with probabilities still low at 10-20 percent. Duration of any fog should be short-lived. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Tonight through Wednesday night...Light to moderate southeast winds and moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period. Tonight, we could see some patchy fog/hazy conditions on the Gulf waters. Brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be possible each afternoon, especially across the Laguna Madre and northern Gulf waters due to elevated winds. Thursday through next Tuesday...Light to moderate winds and moderate seas are likely Thursday. However, stronger northeasterly winds behind a cold front Friday will likely require Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories Friday afternoon. Wind speeds look to diminish Friday night, with light to moderate winds and moderate seas continuing through the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 94 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 76 99 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 78 102 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 105 76 107 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 84 78 88 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 93 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ250-251- 253>255-353. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....60 AVIATION...59-GB