Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220513
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1213 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence for strong winds from Saturday through Monday.

- Severe weather potential Sunday afternoon and evening for
  areas along and east of highway 283.

- Increasing confidence in some accumulating wet snow on grassy
  surfaces Monday for areas along and northwest of a Hays to
  Liberal line.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

18Z observations show skies have become mostly sunny across
western Kansas as a stratus deck has completely eroded in our
western zones. In the upper levels a shortwave trough is slowly
moving east in the Texas panhandle and another shortwave is
developing in eastern Wyoming. At the surface a weak low and
trough in eastern Colorado has led to the winds switching to the
southeast and south.

For tonight the shortwave in Wyoming will move to the south and
east through the overnight and a 1007 mb surface low will
develop in Nebraska dragging a cold front to the south and west.
The cold air shouldn`t arrive in our CWA until around sunrise in
our northwest zones. Ahead of the front lower level moisture and
stratus should develop being ushered in by southeast winds for
areas southeast of Dodge City. By sunrise areas of fog should
develop along and east of an Ashland to St. John line and
visibilities could be around dense fog criteria (1/4 mile or
less).

Friday the cold front will quickly move through southwest Kansas
and should be through the entire region by 9AM. With the mixing
behind the front the fog should quickly erode and winds will
increase to 20-30 mph with higher gusts. Winds will stay strong
through the late afternoon and then diminish as a surface high
moves in from the northern plains. With north to northeast winds
through the day we should have good cold air advection and high
temperatures will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Friday night the approaching storm system will start to take
shape off the Pacific coast and the strong subtropical jet will
start to become more southwest to northeast oriented. This
orientation will form a 700 mb shortwave and a surface low in
the front range and surface winds in western Kansas will start
to switch back to the southeast. Winds will start out lighter
for most of the overnight and then we should see the winds
increase especially near the Colorado border by sunrise. The
stronger winds should enough mixing to modify the cold air mass
slightly and lows will fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Increasing confidence in a high impact weather system for
southwest Kansas from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon. Winds, fire weather, severe weather, and snow are all
on the table.

The overall setup has long range ensembles showing a large
longwave trough moving from the Pacific coast to the central and
southern plains from Saturday through Monday. On the south side
of the trough a subtropical jet with 140-160 kt winds will help
to either turn the trough more negatively tilted or a closed low
from Sunday afternoon through Monday. With the latest Euro
ensemble run the negative tilt trend is continuing which would
lead to a slower progression of the system and the severe
weather setup moving back to the west into southwest Kansas.


Starting with the general surface winds there is near certainty
with how the forecast is shaping up of strong winds across
southwest Kansas ahead of the main system as well as behind the
system. Winds will ramp up Saturday afternoon as a surface low
deepens in eastern Colorado to around 996 mb by 00Z. NBMv4.1
winds are already at sustained 25-30 kts with gusts to 40 kts
for areas west of highway 283 to the Colorado border and
probabilities of > 30 mph is at 100% and the Euro ensembles are
in agreement with wind gusts over 34 kts being around 100%. As
the main trough enters into Colorado on Sunday the surface low
will continue to deepen and both deterministic and ensemble
models have the surface low reaching levels as low as 980 mb in
southeast Colorado by 00Z Monday. This would lead to strong
winds and potentially high wind criteria for areas along and
east of highway 283 as there is ~10% risk of winds approaching
58 mph in the Euro ensembles and 10-20% of winds greater than 50
mph in the NBMv4.1 probabilities. We should see a brief lapse
in the winds as the surface low moves through southwest Kansas
Sunday night and then winds will turn to the northwest and
increase behind a cold front for Monday where 20-30 kt sustained
winds and higher gusts will be on the table.

Fire weather will be mainly on Sunday. A dryline will setup in
the late morning through the afternoon with the latest ensemble
guidance showing the dryline reaching from Dighton to Ashland
around 4 pm. Relative humidity values will drop to 15% or less
and combining with strong southwest winds this could lead to
critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions
especially for areas from Syracuse to Liberal.

East of the dryline will be the area most favorable for severe
weather. What will be certain is the strong winds in the 0-6 km
layer and veering winds with height especially along and east of
highway 283. Latest ensemble runs are also showing a little more
moisture with dew points reaching into the upper 40s to low 50s
by afternoon. Convective initiation around 4 pm will be in the
vicinity of the dryline which will be along and east of highway
283. The moisture will probably be the biggest determinate on
how impactful the severe weather setup will be as the upper
level dynamics are a certainty.

Monday as the main storm system moves to the northeast into
Nebraska a strong cold front will race across southwest Kansas
and a mesoscale band of snow is forecast to develop behind the
low with ensembles placing 1-2 inches of wet snow roughly along
and north of a Liberal to Hays line. Ensemble probabilities of
> 1 inch of snow are highest from Syracuse to Hays where we have
50-60%. Combining this wet snow with strong winds and we could
see impacts mainly from visibility issues as the warm ground and
temperatures in the mid 30s should keep the majority of the snow
from sticking to the roadways during the day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

South to southeast winds at 10 to 15 knots will shift to the
north and increase to near 25 knots between 12z and 18z Friday
as a cold front crosses southwest Kansas. BUFR sounding and
short range ensembles indicating limited moisture/clouds
following this cold frontal passage so VFR conditions are
expected. Prior to the cold frontal passage in the Dodge City
and Liberal area will be monitoring the potential for a brief
period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities due to fog towards
daybreak (12z). At this time SREF has the chance for this to
occur at only 30% so will only include a brief tempo group to
cover this potential.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Burgert


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