Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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231 FXUS63 KDVN 030956 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 456 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper level pattern remains active, with periodic chances for showers and storms through next week. - The Storm Prediction Center has a Level 1 Marginal Risk for severe storms Saturday for portions of the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 455 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Following yesterday`s all day rain in much of eastern Iowa (thankfully drought areas included), and the afternoon barrage of severe storms in far eastern McDonough county Illinois, today we`re in store for a very pleasant day as the slow moving cold front and moisture along it exit to the east before sunrise. Some fog will potentially be found over the area through 8AM, but the majority of today looks to be light winds, mostly sunny skies, and mild temperatures in the lower to mid 70s as high pressure moves through our northern counties. Tonight, a quiet evening will allow for quick temperature drop off into the mid 40s north to mid 50s south. Increasing clouds are expected overnight, as another progressive upper trof approaches from the west. While some models are very aggressive on moisture transport ahead of this wave, the mean is quite low on pops prior to 12Z Sunday. The EC is by far the most aggressive on this moist transport. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 455 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday remains a low confidence day within our forecast. The frontal precipitation appears supported by decent dynamics, but the the timing of this front is rather early, and could be near the Mississippi River by Noon-1pm Saturday. That early arrival may not allow for significant heating and CAPE development ahead of the fropa. That said, there are some slower solutions, such as the NAMnest, and these appear to be the reason for SPC`s placement of marginal (level 1) in our central and eastern CWA. These would be progressive storms, and a marginal wind threat appears the be the mode of any severe weather, with mainly small hail resulting from the limited instability. Following the fropa out of the area by afternoon, the threat for rain and storms will end. Another chilly night is expected Saturday night, with lows in the 40s to lower 50s, but Sunday, much like today, appears to be seasonally pleasant in the lower 70s. Global models are in good agreement that a large upper trof will build into the Midwest in the Monday through Wednesday time frame. This should sweep another dynamically supported warm advection band of showers and storms through our area centered on Monday night into Tuesday. The quick flow aloft, and progressive boundary should keep QPF totals from being problematic, with most spots well under 1 inch in the NBM/WPC mean. Seasonally pleasant temperatures are forecast through Wednesday, with a bit of a cool down by late week, as the upper trof deepens over the Midwest. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A cold front has now moved through all TAF sites and is slowly making its way through Illinois as of 5Z. A band of light rain showers is still moving east slowly through far eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. This is light, and mostly associated with visibility of 6SM or better, and variable cigs between 600 ft and 2500 ft. This rain and cigs will end by 07z at sites along the Mississippi River, and is already done at CID. Clearing is expected between 08z west and 11Z east, and with that, some ground fog formation is possible, especially in Iowa where heavier rain totals fell in the past 24 hours. This fog would burn off by mid morning if it forms, with prevailing VFR weather in light winds the remainder of the day, which will trend toward east/southeast by mid morning. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Ervin