Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 280734
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
234 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 234 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

Large-scale upper ridge in place across the central U.S. this
morning as an upper low spins across the Intermountain West and
Subtropical Storm Alberto approaches the central Gulf Coast. Very
warm air embedded within the ridge has led to record breaking
heat from the western Great Lakes south into the lower Missouri
Valley in recent days, and the warmth will continue today as
850-hPa temps of 1-2 standard deviations above normal remain in
place across the area. Inspection of 850-hPa temps does suggests
that values will be a few degrees cooler than Sunday, which
should result a slightly cooler afternoon as compared to
yesterday. As a result, there are no plans for a heat advisory
this morning as max heat indices stay in the mid to upper 90s.
High-res models all highlight popcorn type convection after 18z
this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough approaches in southwest
flow aloft, however very weak wind fields aloft will limit much
in the way of any severe weather development. Activity will
quickly come to an end late this afternoon and evening with loss
of daytime heating.

As for the remainder of the work week, not much change expected
with regards to temperatures as above normal conditions will
prevail right through the weekend. Best chance for organized
precipitation will arrive by Wednesday as aforementioned upper
low finally ejects east with time. But as is the case today, weak
wind fields aloft should preclude much in the way of any severe wx
development. As for Alberto, impacts look to remain limited at
best as Wednesday`s trough arrives in time to deflect lingering
circulation to the east. All told, a really benign weather
pattern with not a whole lot to speak of aside from the fact that
summer looks to be here for good...

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Only thing
to watch will be a bit of a direction shift in the wind, but
speeds will be below 10 knots through the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Cutter



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