Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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360 FXUS63 KILX 041122 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 622 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Level 1 (Marginal) Risk of severe storms from late Saturday afternoon into evening for all of central and southeast IL. - Periodic chances of showers and storms Monday through Friday, with severe storm potential elevated on Tuesday and Wednesday during the late afternoon into evening each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The latest IR satellite images show Illinois in the coll zone between two systems, with high pressure providing mostly clear skies and light winds across the CWA. Ongoing storms across eastern Nebraska and Kansas will continue to make slow progress toward the mid-Mississippi River Valley as a cold front approaches. Low level flow will increase ahead of that feature from the southwest, boosting low level dewpoints into the low to mid 60s this afternoon. That will support instability parameters climbing into the 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE range ahead of the front, despite thickening anvil cirrus and mid clouds this afternoon. Marginal shear values around 30kts will be a limiting factor in severe storm potential, as a broken line of storms progresses into central Illinois between 3 pm and 5 pm. Chances for any rainfall will peak at 60-70% west of I-55, and remain in the chance category east of I-55. A marginal threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts will be present 22z/5pm through around 01z-02z before diurnal stabilization limits updrafts. By the time the line reaches I-57 the lightning threat will be diminishing/ending. The next period of concern will start on Tuesday as a stationary front across southern Illinois lifts north as a warm front in response to surface cyclogenesis in the Plains. Warm sector shear and instability parameter space will be more favorable for severe weather, as 0-6km shear climbs over 60kts along with MUCAPE climbing toward 2500 J/kg under the support of 65+F deg SFC dewpoints. All severe hazards will be in play as supercells develop during the evening across central Illinois. The upper trough will evolve eastward on Wednesday, dragging a cold front across Illinois during the late afternoon and evening time frame. There are some differences in the model guidance timing of the trough evolution, but Grand Ensemble guidance is pointing toward 40-50% chance for bulk shear of at least 50kts and CAPE of at least 2000 J/kg both Tuesday and Wednesday for areas south of I-72. The best shear is along an axis northwest of the best instability, but enough overlap exists for a wave of severe storms each late afternoon and evening. Additional storm chances will linger through Friday, but at a much lower coverage and intensity per long range guidance. Total rainfall over the next 7 days looks to climb into the 1 to 2 inch range, especially south of I-72, where Grand Ensemble probs show 50-60% chance of over 2 inches. Some rivers may climb back toward minor flood stage due to saturated soils allowing for higher runoff into streams. Shimon && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning) Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 FEW to SCT high clouds will overspread the area today, with VFR conditions expected through much of this afternoon. A line of thunderstorms will move through central Illinois late this afternoon into evening, with the highest chances (60%+) for thunder being west of I-57. A cold front will shift winds from the south to west- northwest tonight, with speeds generally <15 kts expected. MVFR clouds become likely later this evening and will linger through the overnight hours for most airfields. NMA && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$