869
FXUS64 KMEG 120929
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
429 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A mostly dry and mild day is on tap for the Mid-South with highs
in the lower 80s. An isolated shower is possible across northeast
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will ramp up tonight and continue through Tuesday as an
upper level disturbance moves through the region. Dry and mild
weather returns for Wednesday and most of Thursday before rain
chances increase toward the end of the week as the next system
pushes into the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Mid and high clouds are increasing across the region in advance of
the approaching system currently over the Four Corners region.
Temps range from the lower 50s in the the typical cooler spots
along the TN River to the mid 60s across the Delta region SW of
Memphis.

A mid-level shortwave ridge axis will move across the Mid-South
today with another mostly dry and mild day expected. Clouds will
continue to increase in advance of the next system and temps will
reach into the lower 80s as winds turn light southerly. Southerly
winds will bring an increase in moisture as dewpoints start to
climb a bit. As moisture starts to surge northward across the
Delta the CAMs are picking up on a few showers developing across
NE AR and the MO Bootheel late this afternoon and early this
evening.

The upper low over the SW US will push across the Southern Plains
tonight and Monday. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms
will ramp up tonight and Monday morning. A cold front will push
into western AR and the Arklatex Monday afternoon. The airmass
across the Lower MS Valley will be moist, with dewpoints in the
mid 60s, and somewhat unstable, with SBCAPES > 1000 J/kg pushing
into much of AR. Expect clusters of storms to develop across the
western AR and Arklatex early Monday afternoon. These clusters
will push ENE into the early evening. The environment will be less
favorable over the Mid-South but a few strong to severe storms
may survive before they weaken across the Mid-South. There is a
marginal risk for severe storms along and south of a line from
JBR-MEM-TUP.

The upper low will pivot into the OH Valley on Tuesday with
showers and a few thunderstorms continuing. Surface heating
Tuesday afternoon may create enough instability for a few strong
storms over NE MS. The upper low exits the region Tuesday night
with rain chances coming to and end.

Wednesday looks like the nicest day of the week. Upper ridging
will move over the region with dry weather and sunshine. Highs
will be the upper 70s. It is beginning to look like we may squeak
another mostly nice day on Thursday as the ridge hangs on and the
next system is slowing down a bit.

The next system will push out of the SW US by the end of the week
with rain chances increasing Thursday night into Friday. A moist
and relatively unstable boundary layer combined with an upper
trough in mid-May will probably result in a few strong storms at
some point. The trough should push east of the region by the
weekend resulting in mostly dry, warm weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

No significant changes anticipated for the 06Z TAFs. High clouds
will increase on Sunday, in advance an approaching upper level
low. This system will bring scattered SHRA to the Midsouth late
Sunday night. Main impacts will be high IFR/low MVFR CIGs,
associated with surging gulf moisture just off the surface.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...PWB