133
FXUS62 KMFL 071423
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1023 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1017 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

High pressure continues to remain in control of the weather
pattern across South Florida this morning bringing mainly dry
conditions to the region. As the sea breezes develop and push
inland this afternoon, just enough lower level moisture is
present to support isolated shower and thunderstorm activity
mainly over interior Southwest Florida. With plenty of mid to
upper level dry air in place, this will help to inhibit strong
thunderstorm development. However, locally heavy downpours cannot
be ruled out with any storm this afternoon into this evening. High
temperatures will be on the warm side as they rise into the mid
to upper 80s across the east coast metro areas and into the lower
90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

High pressure continues to dominate the benign and warm weather
pattern across South Florida. This will keep generally easterly
to southeasterly flow at the surface for today and Wednesday.
Upper levels remain too dry for strong convection, and today is
likely to be mainly sunny and dry outside of a few scattered
showers and storms that may impact interior and southwest portions
of the area during the afternoon.

A few showers will be possible across eastern areas during the
late morning as the sea breeze pushes inland, but the focus of any
convection will shift towards the interior areas of South Florida
(where the east and west coast sea breeze will meet) by mid
afternoon. On Wednesday, drier air moves in at the mid-levels as
high pressure builds overhead leading to even lower rain chances
for Wednesday afternoon.

High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will rise into the mid
80s across the east coast metro areas, and into the lower 90s
across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The Atlantic ridge will shift south as a frontal boundary associated
with a low in northeastern Canada pushes into the Atlantic. This will
lead to the surface ridge axis sitting over southern Florida from mid
to late week period. This will enable a warming trend over several
days with widespread 90 degree temperatures save for sea breeze cooled
areas closer to the coast. Some inland portions of South Florida could
see temperatures reach into the upper 90s, particularly on Thursday
and Friday. Rain chances will remain minimal, though some convection
cannot be ruled out inland. The risk of heat illness will require
monitoring as early as Wednesday as heat index values start entering
the triple digits. As drier air aloft mixes to the surface, RHs across
interior South Florida could drop into the upper 20% range on Thursday
and Friday which could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions.

Late in the week, the next frontal boundary will move across the
southeastern United States but it will lack the support to clear
South Florida. Increasing moisture will lead to more shower and
thunderstorm activity through the weekend as the front settles over
south central to southern Florida. Temperatures will cool slightly
with the additional cloud cover and rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds
will increase out of the SE around 15z and will range between 10
and 15 kts through the afternoon. Isolated showers and storms
could develop over the interior late this afternoon, however,
these storms should remain away from the terminals. At KAPF, winds
will shift to the SW in the afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

A moderate to fresh southeasterly wind flow will remain in place
through the middle of the week across the Atlantic waters while
gentle to moderate southeasterly winds continue across the rest
of the local waters. Winds may become southwesterly each afternoon
across the Gulf waters as a Gulf breeze develops. Towards the end
of the week, winds across all local waters will gradually become
more southerly as a frontal boundary approaches from the north.
Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 3 feet or
less through the middle of the week while they remain at 2 feet or
less across the Gulf waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Atlantic
Coast beaches through the middle of the week as moderate onshore
winds continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            87  75  89  76 /  10  10  10   0
West Kendall     87  74  90  73 /  20  10  10   0
Opa-Locka        87  75  89  75 /  10  10  10   0
Homestead        85  74  88  75 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  87  76  87  76 /  10   0  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  87  75  87  75 /  10   0  10   0
Pembroke Pines   87  75  88  76 /  10  10   0   0
West Palm Beach  87  72  89  73 /  10   0   0   0
Boca Raton       86  75  87  74 /  10   0  10   0
Naples           88  75  91  74 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...CWC