157
FXUS66 KOTX 062316
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
416 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect cool, windy, and showery conditions for the start of the
work week as a trough of low pressure remains over the Inland NW.
Then a ridge of high pressure builds into the region, giving way
to warmer and drier weather by midweek that continues into the
weekend. Next weekend has the potential to deliver our warmest
temperatures of the spring so far.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday: Evening convection will calm as day time
heating cools. The isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will
diminish along with the winds. The rain potential for has
decreased from previous runs with chances limited to the Cascades
and Idaho Panhandle. Amounts are not expected to exceed 0.1" with
most just receiving a few hundreths. Winds will are still expected
to be breezy and more widespread across the Columbia Basin. The
wind gusts have slightly weakened from previous forecast.
Strongest winds will again be in the East slopes of the Cascades
reaching into the low 40 MPH range. The Palouse could also see
gusts near 40 MPH. Winds will calm late Tuesday as the cold front
exits. Temperatures will be 50s to low 60s for highs and 30s
and low 40s for overnight lows.

Wednesday through Sunday: Ensembles continue to be in decent
agreement of a ridge pattern developing along the coast during
this period. It will bring an unseasonable dry, warm trend to the
region. There will be diminishing mountain shower activity through
Wednesday. High temperatures will increase a few degrees each day
from the prior day. The region can expect widespread 80
temperatures by the weekend. These will will be 10-15 warmer than
normal. The Central Basin could see some locations reach into the
low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s and 50s. /JDC

.HYDROLOGY...
The unseasonably warm temperatures this weekend will increase the
high mountain snowmelt in the northern Cascades, Selkirks, and
northern Panhandle mountains. This will give way to rises in flows
on the creeks and rivers in the east slopes of the Cascades,
Okanogan Highlands to the northern ID Panhandle. Due to the lower
mountain snowpack, the additional rises should bring streamflows
to normal levels. A few river basins may near bankfull conditions,
although the threat of river flooding remains very low (less than
10%) across the Inland NW. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Scattered showers across eastern Washington will move to
the east-northeast around 30kt until atmospheric destabilization
decreases between 02-04z. There has been a handful of lightning
strikes in the Columbia Basin, but not sustained enough to add
lightning to the TAFs. If there is any early morning stratus
Tuesday, the best bet will be over the Idaho Panhandle and far
eastern corner of northeast Washington. A few hours of 2500ft
ceilings has been retained in the Coeur d`Alene TAF and our
aviation gridded forecast has similar cigs for Sandpoint, Bonners
Ferry and Kellogg. Afternoon showers will be more limited to north
Idaho on Tuesday afternoon as drier dewpoints infiltrate the
region. VCSH or PROB30 groups for showers are in the TAFs for
Spokane and Coeur d`Alene between 19 and 00z. /GKoch

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence of a 2000 to 3000ft stratus deck over north Idaho is
low. HREF probabilities are low (less than 20 percent) for Coeur
d`Alene and other nearby airports. GFS MOS is more convinced.
Future TAF issuances may remove or cut back on the lower cigs
Tuesday morning since drier air is moving into the region. /GKoch

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  60  38  65  41  75 /  30  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  35  57  38  62  41  73 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Pullman        34  53  36  57  38  69 /  50  10  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       41  60  43  64  44  77 /  40  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       33  61  36  69  38  77 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      36  56  40  62  40  72 /  40  20  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        36  50  39  57  42  70 /  60  50  30  20   0   0
Moses Lake     39  64  37  72  41  80 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      41  59  40  71  47  78 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           37  65  38  74  44  82 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$