594
FXUS61 KRLX 121802
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
202 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry weather into the start of the new
work week amid a warming trend. Wet weather returns Monday
night lasting into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 147 PM Sunday...

A dry and chilly night is on tap as a surface high pressure remains
in control under mostly clear skies. Winds will become calm
overnight allowing for radiational cooling to drop temperatures
few degrees, slightly below normal at our common cold spots
into Monday morning.

Dry conditions will persist for the most part on Monday as the high
pressure shifts east, and the area becomes under deep northwest
flow. Warm air advection will promote warm afternoon temperatures,
generally in the lower 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid
60s higher elevations.

A southern stream shortwave energy, riding along an upper level
ridge, will bring an increase in clouds and low chances for
precipitation Monday afternoon and evening, ahead of an approaching
low pressure system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

Active weather returns in the short term period as an upper low in
the southern stream moves east towards the Ohio Valley region Monday
night, eventually opening into a wave as it crosses our area on
Wednesday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across
the ares as it does so, with isolated water issues a possibility,
owing to saturated air and light flow. If localized water issues do
occur, Wednesday looks to be the better day for this owing to break
in precipitation in days before, and ground will need time to
saturate from repetitive slow moving storms/showers. Severe storms
are not anticipated during the period due to overall weak
dynamics.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1155 AM Sunday...

Drier conditions take hold for Thursday as high pressure surface and
aloft briefly builds in. There could be an isolated shower or even
storm however, from any lingering moisture behind departing system
and diurnal heating. Otherwise, another low will approach the area
for Friday into the weekend, with additional rounds of showers and
storms. This period also looks to be a period that will need to be
watched for localized water issues, with model soundings suggesting
deeply saturated profiles with tall skinny cape, however, it appears
as though this feature will not linger long, with drier weather
taking hold for Sunday, therefore have low confidence this far out
in terms of impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 147 PM Sunday...

Widespread VFR conditions will prevail through the end of period.
High pressure remains in control with dry weather and mostly
sunny skies this afternoon. Differential heating sources will
produce gusty winds up to 20 knots through sunset. Winds will
become light and variable or even calm overnight tonight. The
clear skies and calm flow will allow shallow fog to develop
mainly along the river valleys. Do not expect areas of dense fog
to affect any terminals at this point.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None anticipated at this time.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Areas of IFR visibility or ceilings are possible in rain Tuesday
afternoon and night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ