Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 211728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1228 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Issued at 946 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

The plume of clouds over the southwest part of the state keeps
hanging on, so kept the cloud cover in the area for a little
longer and expanded it slightly. Also increased high temperatures
this afternoon as current observations are already 3 to 6 degrees
ahead of the forecast in some locations. Additionally, mixing from
breezy winds this afternoon and ridging aloft should help
temperatures climb. Did tweak winds a little bit based on the
latest CONSMOS guidance. Otherwise, just blended the latest
observations to the forecast.

Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Latest satellite and surface observations show a plume of low
clouds did show up at Dickinson and across southwest North Dakota
as depicted by the HRRR. This cloud area then dissipates by mid
morning. Adopted the HRRR trends for clouds.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

For today and tonight, the main weather feature is an upper level
low tracking south of the state. Currently the chance of
precipitation will remain south of the region. As the upper low
moves east a fast moving short wave across southern Canada, the
Saskatchewan and Alberta Provinces, will approach and create a
weak downstream h500 ridge over North Dakota. This suggests
perhaps warmer temperatures than the past few days and stuck with
the higher temperatures of around 70 northwest and upper 50s and
60s elsewhere.

Tonight a Pacific cold front will approach from the west, with
temperatures modified from the mountain crossing to the northern
plains. So a dry passage is expected arriving northwest after

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

We still have some minor fire weather concerns for Sunday, with
minimum relative humidity around 25 percent across the west
associated with lower dew points behind the front. However the
better winds shift to teh east by afternoon and do not see this
impacting or raising fire weather at this time as the best wind
gradient stays to the north.

The global models have been consistent in developing a shortwave
trough as it crosses the Rockies Monday afternoon and Monday
night. For the most part this will be be rain, impacting teh
southern third of teh state, but a changeover to snow could
result in some light snow Tuesday morning, which would quickly
melt southwest with little accumulations. Following this another
dry cold frontal passage will bring a brief cool down Thursday,
mainly across the east. By the end of the week a fairly well
deified temperature gradient, from east to west looks plausible,
warmer to the west and cooler to the east. This may be more
pronounced than the Superblend guidance currently has due to the
Bias Corrected grids from the early April Temperatures. Believe
this will sort itself out with time and opted to use the
Superblend, which may be cooler, at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period.




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