Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS65 KFGZ 191026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
326 AM MST Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A potent cold front will bring another round of
strong winds to the area today. Behind the front, there will be
increasing chances for rain and snow showers late tonight into
Friday. Moderating temperatures and lighter winds can be expected
for the weekend and into early next week.


.DISCUSSION...The next weather maker for northern Arizona is
easily discernible on satellite this morning as it moves into
central/southern California. The cold front associated with this
system will cross the region today and into tonight leading to
more strong winds. Model guidance indicates 700 mb wind speeds of
50-60 kts with this system which will translate to widespread
advisory/warning level gusts in northern Arizona. The strongest
winds are expected to be along the Mogollon Rim and to the north
and east. In this area, south-southwesterly gusts of 55-65 mph
are anticipated with gusts of 45-55 mph elsewhere. The strong
winds are expected to generate areas of blowing dust across
northeast Arizona which could reduce visibility to near zero at
times. These strong winds combined with very dry relative
humidities will lead to critical fire weather conditions across
the entire area. Wind products and the Red Flag Warnings all are
in effect from 11am this morning until 8pm this evening.

Behind the front, cooler air aloft will push into the region
with increasing chances for rain and snow showers late tonight
into Friday. While an inch or two of snow could fall on the
Kaibab Plateau, expect generally light shower activity with liquid
amounts of 0.10" or less.

The weekend and early next week will feature moderating
temperatures and much lighter winds. Long-range models begin to
diverge mid next week, but looks like more breezy conditions
could be on the way.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect very strong south to
southwest winds at all levels from 18z Thu - 03z Fri due to a cold
frontal passage. Surface winds - Til 16z Thu variable to 10 kts,
after 16Z South to Southwest increasing to 20-35 kts with gusts 40
to 60 kts...fastest speeds across Navajo and Apache counties this
afternoon. Aft 03z Fri wind speeds decreasing to 10-20 kt gusts to
30 kt, and shifting directions to westerly behind the front. VFR for
most of the period, exceptions are areas IFR in blowing dust for the
northeast quarter of the state 18z-03z, and aft 06z Friday areas
mvfr west across Coconino county as cigs fall to below 3000 feet.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A strong cold front will bring very strong winds
and widespread critical fire weather conditions to all of the region
today. Wind gusts to 65 mph are expected in Navajo and Apache
counties this afternoon. Very dry conditions persist through this
evening, with increasing humidity and cloud cover for all by Friday
morning. Scattered showers are possible Friday. Much less wind is
expected on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Drying and warming conditions return
starting Saturday, with generally light winds.


this morning to 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ012>017-039-040.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
evening FOR AZZ104>118-137>140.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening
FOR AZZ004>011-037-038.

Dust Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
evening FOR AZZ005-009>014-039-040.




For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.